You could probably fill a library (or data centre) with all the books available out there on project risk management.

Much of that intellectual capital focuses on how to assess and value the potential impact of risks on a project. There’s a lot of thinking about, for example:

• Statistical modelling to derive the most likely outcome
• Analysing empirical data to predict the future
• Frameworks for structuring risks as hazards, events, probabilities, impacts and controls
• And now of course a lot about how AI will supercharge all of this (which, evidently, it will)

But for me, no matter how good we get at forecasting risk, it somewhat misses the point – and this is why so many organisations treat risk assessment with a box-ticking mentality – because in itself all this effort doesn’t actually reduce risk.

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