The text below is a summary of the article published in the Polytechnique Insights newsletter on 14 May 2025, by Anaïs Marechal, Anne de Bortoli, Associate Professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal and Associate Researcher at the École des Ponts ParisTech (IP Paris), and Jean-Philippe Hermine, Director General of the Institut mobilités en transition at the Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales.
The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is one of the few recent pieces of good news in the fight against climate change. Between 2018 and 2022, the share of EVs in passenger car sales rose from 1.6% to 10%, and the trajectories envisaged by the Climate Action Tracker predict between 75% and 95% of sales in 2030, or even 100% in certain scenarios. This dynamic is based on available and economically competitive technologies, ambitious public policies and committed manufacturers.
However, the surge in the sale of electric vehicles masks some major limitations. Firstly, the ‘EV share of sales’ indicator does not provide any information on changes in distances travelled. In other words, the increase in distances travelled may offset the gains associated with electrification. Secondly, the reduction in emissions depends largely on the electricity mix used: the lifecycle carbon footprint of EVs remains lower than that of internal combustion vehicles in most countries, but the extent of the benefit varies according to the carbon intensity of electricity generation.
The growth of EVs is also heavily dependent on geographical and political factors. In 2023, the global share of EV sales reached 18% (≈14 million units), concentrated mainly in China, Europe and the US – with China alone accounting for almost two-thirds of global sales. Targeted public policies (production/purchase subsidies, targets for ending sales of combustion engines) have been decisive: Norway (where 93% of sales are EVs), Iceland, Sweden and other Nordic countries are examples. In the EU, the planned ban on the sale of combustion-powered vehicles by 2035 (with some states anticipating 2030) sends a more binding signal to the industry.
The industrial transformation is palpable: more than twenty major manufacturers, representing over 90% of global sales, have set targets for electrification. If these targets are met, annual sales of EVs could approach 40–45 million units by 2030, a level consistent with current forecasts and likely to boost investment in supply chains and battery production.
It should also be noted that the ‘SUVisation’ of the fleet, with a high proportion of SUVs among electric models (around two-thirds of the range), increases the average weight of vehicles and, consequently, emissions per kilometre travelled. As a result, the average weight of cars has increased significantly over the last thirty years, attenuating the unit gains linked to electrification. Corrective measures, such as weight-based penalties and eco-scores, have now been introduced in several European countries to limit this drift.
In this context, the growing demand for mobility remains a central issue: even if EVs reduce emissions per vehicle, the increase in kilometres travelled and the growth of the fleet may offset any gains. Decarbonisation therefore requires additional levers: for example, a modal shift (increasing the supply of public transport, etc.), reducing the distances travelled by private vehicles, and accelerating the phasing out of internal combustion vehicles (an acceleration factor of ≈7 required between now and 2040 according to some estimates).
Geopolitical and industrial risks are also real. International tensions, political reversals (e.g. the introduction of less ambitious climate policies in some major powers) and concerns about supplies of critical metals (mining capacity, available reserves, etc.) may put the brakes on the trajectory. In addition, the political stakes involved in electrification undermine social acceptance and the continuity of public policies, exposing the transition to potential disruptions.
Emerging countries are also following varied trajectories. The share of EVs in their fleets remains low, but there are favourable factors: production incentives (India), the arrival of more affordable models (development of new Chinese programmes, the Latino-Asian market), or the development of supply chains. Despite these signals, the future contribution of emerging countries to transport-related emissions could remain lower than expected, according to certain scenarios, but their electrification remains an important opportunity to limit the overall rise in emissions.
As far as the short-term impact on the climate is concerned, the effect of EVs is already perceptible, albeit limited: for example, the electrification of the European car fleet should make it possible to avoid tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 per year – a positive signal, but insufficient compared with the total emissions from the sector, which is growing in several regions. To achieve the 1.5°C global warming limit, electrification must be part of a more global systemic strategy.
In conclusion, the automotive example shows that political will and clear regulatory signals can produce rapid and significant results. Electrification is a proven technology offering major co-benefits (air quality, reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports) and strategic industrial leverage. But to transform this progress into a lasting contribution to carbon neutrality, we need to:
1. decarbonise the electricity mix;
2. curb SUVisation and limit the average weight of vehicles;
3. promote a modal shift and reduce energy demand for travel;
4. ensure the resilience of critical material supply chains;
5. maintain stable and coordinated public policies at the international level.
So, while the electrification of vehicles is a real technical and industrial lever, it is not enough. Only a systemic approach, combining regulation, infrastructure, sobriety and industrial policy, will make it possible to anchor the transition of the transport sector on a long-term trajectory compatible with warming of +1.5°C.
REFERENCES
https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/state-of-climate-action-2023/
https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/decarbonising-transport-light-duty-vehicles/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-10/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212200380X?via%3Dihub
Henri Philippe, Partner, Accuracy
Accuracy Talks Straight #14 – The academic insight