Business case
Our client, a Canadian-owned investment company, was considering a $25m–30m equity investment in a Canadian company operating a satellite constellation for high-resolution monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions. The investment decision was based on a financial model projecting revenues from various industry verticals (oil & gas, landfill, wastewater, shale gas) and including ambitious satellite deployment plans.
We validated the model’s internal consistency and raised key challenges on market penetration speed and ramp-up realism, helping the client refine their investment scenarios.
We conducted a critical review of the target’s five-year financial model, underlying assumptions and revenue logic. Our work included a bottom-up and top-down analysis of projected revenues, validation of pricing assumptions, satellite capacity planning, working capital structure, capex assumptions and margin targets. We also challenged the key assumptions (e.g. ramp-up period, penetration rates) and tested the sensitivity of the model to delayed satellite launches and slower client acquisition.