Business case
An investor initiated legal action claiming to have subscribed a multi‑million‑euro capital increase on the basis of a business plan allegedly containing misleading assumptions. The dispute focused on the nature, purpose, and reliability of the plan, the assumptions used, particularly in relation to the post‑pandemic recovery of the tourism‑hospitality sector, and the deviations observed between forecasts and actual performance.
Developing an objective framework is essential to assess performance variances reliably and fairly. It allows Courts to distinguish between deviations caused by external market factors and those resulting from structural weaknesses. Our analysis underscored that external market dynamics affecting the hospitality sector were a significant driver of performance outcomes.
We conducted a technical assessment of the business plan and its underlying assumptions. We reconstructed the plan’s development process, evaluated it intended purpose and use, analysed the role and responsibilities of the advisor involved in its preparation, and assessed the reasonableness of the key forecasting assumptions in light of the information available at that time. We also reviewed the subsequent evolution of the business, analysing both the variances between the forecast and actual results and the revisions made to the original plan.