By Nicolas Darbo, Partner, Accuracy
For the moment, 2025 looks set to be a calm year for the major banks. Apart from car leasing, most business lines are showing comfortable growth, particularly corporate and investment banking and retail banking. Against this backdrop, SG is ahead of its business plan and BNPP is expecting an excellent second quarter. Barring any major crises between now and December, this should be a very good year.
JPMorgan posts better-than-expected quarterly results
Excluding the exceptional capital gain on the sale of Visa shares in Q2 2024 (7.9 billion), JPMorgan posted a solid Q2, with net income of 15 billion. Total revenues reached 44.9 billion, up 11% excluding the capital gain, thanks in particular to market activities (+15%). Retail banking grew by 6% thanks to consumer credit, with interest margins stabilising (+2%). Expenses were kept under control (+0%) and risk declined (-7%).
In retail banking, JPMorgan is continuing its expansion strategy. The group has announced the opening of 500 new branches by 2027, while renovating nearly 1,700 existing locations. At the same time, it is developing a premium offering for wealthy clients with the rise of ‘J.P. Morgan Financial Centers’. Internationally, the Chase UK digital bank is continuing to grow, with a German version in the pipeline.
In corporate and investment banking and asset management, JPMorgan is unsurprisingly focusing on generative AI to improve its overall efficiency. Less expected is the creation of an internal geopolitical analysis centre, reflecting the desire to support clients in an increasingly complex world. On the private banking side, the bank has announced the appointment of a global head and the launch of active ETFs and private market funds aimed at a more demanding wealthy clientele.
BNP Paribas targets net profit of €12.2 billion in 2025
BNP Paribas posts solid results for Q2 2025, in line with its annual trajectory. Net banking income rose 2.5% to 12.6 billion, with contrasts between business lines, and net income attributable to the group reached 3.26 billion, despite an unfavourable tax base effect. Operating expenses were kept under control (+0.8%), the cost of risk remained contained at 38 basis points, and the CET1 ratio remained at 12.5%. ROE stood at 10.6%, up year-on-year.
By major business line, CIB continued to drive growth, with revenues up 4% thanks to fixed income products (+28%), which offset the decline in equity trading (-14%). The CPBS division remained stable (+0.4%), supported by commercial banking (+5%) and despite financial services (-7%). The Investment & Protection Services division grew by 4.4%, driven by insurance (+8.2%) and private banking (+6.1%), while asset management declined slightly (-1.8%).
The outlook remains solid for the second half of 2025, with anticipated revenue growth of more than 5% excluding the integration of Axa IM. BNPP expects an acceleration in interest income linked to an improvement in the interest rate scenario and operational efficiency gains. The annual trajectory is confirmed, with a net income target of over 12.2 billion (compared to 11.7 billion in 2024) and a 0.6-point increase in ROTE compared with 2024.
Société Générale has raised its financial targets for 2025
An excellent second quarter for Société Générale: net income attributable to the group reached 1.4 billion, up 31% year-on-year. Revenues rose 1.6% to 6.8 billion, driven in particular by retail banking. The increase in net income is also the result of very tight control of operating expenses (-5.2%) and risk (-8.2% to 25 bp on outstanding loans). ROE rose by more than two points to 8.6%, with a CET1 ratio well above requirements at 13.5%.
As with its peers, not all business lines performed equally well during the quarter. Retail banking in France accounted for the largest share of revenue growth, with an increase of 13.1%, including a 14.3% jump in net interest income. International retail banking and private banking were affected by asset disposals. Corporate and Investment Banking grew by 0.7% thanks to fixed income, and Ayvens outperformed its peers in the current environment (+0.4%).
These results confirm the trend for French banks, several of which have raised their earnings targets or are ahead of their objectives. This is particularly true of SG, which has raised several of its targets for 2025: revenue growth of more than 3% over the year, a cost/income ratio of less than 65% instead of 66%, and a ROTE target of 9% instead of 8%. Its share price reflects this performance, having more than doubled over the past year.