Analyse de rentabilité
A US security technology provider was involved in an ICC arbitration arising from the failure of a defence and border-security project in the Middle East. The dispute concerned technical failures, delays and alleged misrepresentations in connection with equipment to be supplied to an Omani end-user, as well as the broader impact on the local counterparty’s business and pipeline.
The report gave the client a disciplined basis for settlement by linking market practice, financial evidence and conservative assumptions. It clarified why order intake was the relevant metric in this market and avoided double counting between reputational and project-specific losses, helping the client reach a negotiated outcome after extensive quantum work.
We prepared an expert report and developed a framework tailored to an invitation-based defence procurement market. We tested order intake, rather than revenue, as the relevant measure of lost business, defined a supportable loss period, separated reputational losses from project-specific lost profits and quantified alternative pre-award interest approaches.