The annual Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence conference, which brings together economists, business leaders, academics and civil society actors, provides an opportunity to examine the major drivers of change in our economies. This year, Sébastien Gonnet, one of our partners, shed light on a subject that is already shaping our societies: ‘The puzzle of birthrate fluctuations’.
Sébastien views demographics not as an immutable backdrop, but as a key economic variable. It determines the size of the working population, the level of consumption and investment needs, as well as the balance between generations. An ageing population can certainly lead to a dynamic silver sector, but the economy must also contend with a smaller productive base, increased pressure on pension and healthcare funding, and potentially constrained growth. Conversely, a young population represents a lever for growth, but also a challenge: millions of new entrants to the labour market must be absorbed, talent must be trained and investment must be made in infrastructure.
Sébastien has selected three figures to illustrate the scale of the shift:
- Today, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries where the fertility rate is below the replacement threshold.
- In France, this rate is 1.67.
- In Africa, there will be 1.9 billion people under the age of 35 by 2050.
It is this dual dynamic that is already redrawing the map of globalisation. Developed countries are seeing their growth potential shrink, while the future of value creation is shifting to regions capable of transforming their youth pool into an economic asset.