{"id":57918,"date":"2025-11-05T18:13:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T17:13:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=57918"},"modified":"2025-11-06T09:13:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T08:13:30","slug":"briefing-economique-droits-de-douane-technologie-et-problemes-a-venir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/economic-brief-tariffs-tech-and-the-trouble-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Brief - Tarifs douaniers, technologie et probl\u00e8mes \u00e0 venir ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dans cette \u00e9dition de la Note \u00e9conomique, nous explorons trois th\u00e8mes majeurs qui fa\u00e7onnent le paysage \u00e9conomique mondial : l'impact incertain de la politique commerciale am\u00e9ricaine, le casse-t\u00eate de la productivit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e8re de l'IA et la d\u00e9connexion croissante entre les march\u00e9s financiers et les fondamentaux \u00e9conomiques. Jetons un coup d'\u0153il.<\/span><\/p>

Politique commerciale des \u00c9tats-Unis : qui en paie vraiment le prix ?<\/span><\/h4>

Six mois apr\u00e8s le \u2018jour de la lib\u00e9ration\u2019, la politique commerciale des \u00c9tats-Unis reste en suspens. Malgr\u00e9 des menaces r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9es, dont une r\u00e9cente proposition visant \u00e0 imposer des droits de 100% sur les importations de produits pharmaceutiques, le r\u00e9gime tarifaire est encore loin d'\u00eatre fix\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>

Alors que le taux tarifaire moyen a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 18%, les prix \u00e0 la consommation des biens (hors \u00e9nergie et alimentation) n'ont augment\u00e9 que d'environ 1% depuis le d\u00e9but de l'ann\u00e9e.\u00a0<\/span>Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que le prix des biens import\u00e9s a moins augment\u00e9 que celui de nombreux biens produits dans le pays (par exemple l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, qui contribue fortement \u00e0 l'inflation actuelle).<\/p>

Variation cumul\u00e9e sur l'ann\u00e9e des prix pay\u00e9s aux exportateurs \u00e9trangers<\/strong><\/p>

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Sources : BEA, Accuracy<\/span><\/em><\/p>

Alors, qui paie la facture ? Contrairement aux affirmations du pr\u00e9sident Trump selon lesquelles les exportateurs \u00e9trangers absorbent le co\u00fbt, les donn\u00e9es sugg\u00e8rent le contraire : les prix \u00e0 l'exportation n'ont pas diminu\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re significative et les prix \u00e0 la consommation sont rest\u00e9s relativement stables. Il semble donc que la charge incombe aux importateurs am\u00e9ricains, qui absorbent le co\u00fbt par la compression des marges.<\/span><\/p>

En effet, les droits de douane fonctionnent comme une nouvelle taxe sur les entreprises am\u00e9ricaines. Si l'impact inflationniste reste limit\u00e9 pour l'instant, on peut s'interroger sur la viabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme de cette compression des marges. Avec le temps, les importateurs pourraient r\u00e9percuter les co\u00fbts sur les consommateurs, r\u00e9partissant ainsi la charge plus largement.<\/span><\/p>

Productivit\u00e9 et IA : une promesse qui ne s'est pas encore concr\u00e9tis\u00e9e<\/span><\/h4>

Le dernier rapport de l'OCDE sur la productivit\u00e9 mondiale dresse un tableau peu r\u00e9jouissant. En 2023, la productivit\u00e9 du travail (mesur\u00e9e par le PIB par heure travaill\u00e9e) n'a augment\u00e9 que de 0,6% dans les pays de l'OCDE. Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont enregistr\u00e9 une hausse respectable de 1,64%, mais la France a stagn\u00e9 \u00e0 0%, et la zone euro a recul\u00e9 de 1%, l'Italie et l'Estonie enregistrant des baisses respectives de -4,17% et de -6%.<\/span><\/p>

Les coupables ? Un faible renforcement du capital et une stagnation de la qualit\u00e9 de la main-d'\u0153uvre en Europe, deux facteurs qui restent l\u00e9g\u00e8rement positifs aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00e9veloppement de la productivit\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Sources : OCDE : OCDE, Accuracy<\/span><\/em><\/p>

Dans ce paysage relativement sombre, l'intelligence artificielle est souvent pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme le prochain grand facteur de productivit\u00e9. Pourtant, malgr\u00e9 une adoption rapide - 23% des employ\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis utiliseraient des outils d'IA d'ici \u00e0 la fin de 2024 - les gains de productivit\u00e9 tangibles restent insaisissables. Il y a plusieurs raisons \u00e0 cela : L'adoption de l'IA n\u00e9cessite un temps d'apprentissage et d'int\u00e9gration ; et les gains sont susceptibles d'\u00eatre progressifs, et non pas imm\u00e9diats.<\/span><\/p>

Louis sugg\u00e8re une corr\u00e9lation positive entre l'exposition \u00e0 l'IA et la hausse du ch\u00f4mage, en particulier dans des secteurs tels que l'informatique, l'ing\u00e9nierie et les math\u00e9matiques. Bien que ces r\u00e9sultats soient pr\u00e9liminaires et puissent refl\u00e9ter des conditions \u00e9conomiques plus larges, ils soul\u00e8vent d'importantes questions sur les risques de l'\u00e9volution technologique rapide pour le march\u00e9 du travail.<\/span><\/p>

March\u00e9s financiers et IA : investissement rationnel ou formation d'une bulle ?<\/span><\/h4>

Alors que les gains de productivit\u00e9 de l'IA dans le monde r\u00e9el restent modestes, les march\u00e9s financiers pr\u00e9voient d\u00e9j\u00e0 des rendements massifs. Au cours du premier semestre 2025, les investissements dans la technologie, qui \u00e9taient en grande partie li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'IA, ont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 la majeure partie des contributions \u00e0 la croissance du PIB des \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/span><\/p>

Les grandes entreprises technologiques ont fait des promesses audacieuses : Apple et Nvidia ont \u00e0 eux seuls promis plus de $500 milliards d'euros d'investissements li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'IA. Mais l'ampleur de ces engagements suscite des inqui\u00e9tudes quant \u00e0 leur sur\u00e9valuation. L'explosion de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re des \u2018Magnificent 7\u2019 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia et Tesla) fait \u00e9cho \u00e0 l'exub\u00e9rance de la bulle Internet du d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000.<\/span><\/p>

Magnificent 7 et S&P493 (Base 100 = 2021)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Sources : Bloomberg, Accuracy<\/span><\/em><\/p>

Si cette bulle venait \u00e0 \u00e9clater, les cons\u00e9quences pourraient \u00eatre graves, avec des pertes estim\u00e9es \u00e0 1 400 milliards de dollars pour les m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains et jusqu'\u00e0 1 500 milliards de dollars pour les investisseurs \u00e9trangers (selon Gita Gopinath, ancien directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral adjoint du FMI).<\/span><\/p>

En bref, une part importante de la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re mondiale - et surtout am\u00e9ricaine - repose d\u00e9sormais sur des fondations fragiles. La prudence est de mise.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF ><\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this edition of the Economic Brief, we explore three major themes shaping the global economic landscape: the uncertain impact of US trade policy, the productivity puzzle in the age of AI and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic fundamentals. Let\u2019s take a look. US trade policy: who\u2019s really paying the price? Six […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":57920,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[142],"tags":[175],"class_list":["post-57918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-brief","tag-economic-brief"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic Brief \u2013 Tariffs, tech and the trouble ahead? - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/briefing-economique-droits-de-douane-technologie-et-problemes-a-venir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic Brief \u2013 Tariffs, tech and the trouble ahead?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this edition of the Economic Brief, we explore three major themes shaping the global economic landscape: the uncertain impact of US trade policy, the productivity puzzle in the age of AI and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic fundamentals. 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