{"id":57526,"date":"2025-11-04T10:25:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T09:25:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=57526"},"modified":"2025-11-12T09:44:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T08:44:49","slug":"lelectrification-des-voitures-est-satisfaisante-mais-nous-pouvons-faire-mieux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/car-electrification-satisfactory-but-we-can-do-better\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9lectrification des voitures : \u2018Satisfaisant, mais nous pouvons faire mieux !\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Le texte ci-dessous est un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de l'article publi\u00e9 dans la revue <\/em>Polytechnique Insights newsletter du 14 mai 2025, par Ana\u00efs Marechal, Anne de Bortoli, professeur associ\u00e9 \u00e0 l'Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al et chercheur associ\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00c9cole des Ponts ParisTech (IP Paris), et Jean-Philippe Hermine, directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l'Institut mobilit\u00e9s en transition \u00e0 l'Institut du d\u00e9veloppement durable et des relations internationales.<\/em><\/p>

L'essor des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques (VE) est l'une des rares bonnes nouvelles r\u00e9centes dans la lutte contre le changement climatique.<\/strong> Entre 2018 et 2022, la part des VE dans les ventes de voitures particuli\u00e8res est pass\u00e9e de 1,6% \u00e0 10%, et les trajectoires envisag\u00e9es par le Climate Action Tracker pr\u00e9voient entre 75% et 95% de ventes en 2030, voire 100% dans certains sc\u00e9narios. Cette dynamique repose sur des technologies disponibles et \u00e9conomiquement comp\u00e9titives, des politiques publiques ambitieuses et des industriels engag\u00e9s.<\/p>

Cependant, l'essor des ventes de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques masque des limites importantes. Premi\u00e8rement,<\/strong> l'indicateur \u2018part des ventes de VE\u2019 ne fournit aucune information sur l'\u00e9volution des distances parcourues. En d'autres termes, l'augmentation des distances parcourues peut annuler les gains associ\u00e9s \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectrification. Deuxi\u00e8mement<\/strong>, La r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions d\u00e9pend en grande partie de la combinaison d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e : l'empreinte carbone des VE tout au long de leur cycle de vie<\/strong> reste inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 combustion interne dans la plupart des pays, mais l'ampleur de l'avantage varie en fonction de l'intensit\u00e9 en carbone de la production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.<\/p>

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La croissance des VE d\u00e9pend aussi fortement des \u00e9l\u00e9ments suivants des facteurs g\u00e9ographiques et politiques.<\/strong> En 2023, la part mondiale des ventes de VE atteindra 18% (\u224814 millions d'unit\u00e9s), concentr\u00e9es principalement en Chine, en Europe et aux \u00c9tats-Unis - avec La Chine repr\u00e9sente \u00e0 elle seule pr\u00e8s des deux tiers des ventes mondiales.<\/strong> Politiques publiques cibl\u00e9es<\/strong> (subventions \u00e0 la production\/\u00e0 l'achat, objectifs de cessation des ventes de moteurs \u00e0 combustion) ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cisifs :<\/strong> La Norv\u00e8ge (o\u00f9 93% des ventes sont des VE), l'Islande, la Su\u00e8de et d'autres pays nordiques en sont des exemples. Dans l'UE, l'interdiction pr\u00e9vue de la vente de v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 moteur \u00e0 combustion d'ici 2035<\/strong> (certains \u00c9tats pr\u00e9voyant 2030) envoie un signal plus contraignant \u00e0 l'industrie.<\/p>

La transformation industrielle est palpable :<\/strong> plus de vingt grands constructeurs, repr\u00e9sentant plus de 90% des ventes mondiales, ont fix\u00e9 des objectifs d'\u00e9lectrification. Si ces objectifs sont atteints, les ventes annuelles de VE pourraient approcher les 40-45 millions d'unit\u00e9s d'ici 2030,<\/strong> un niveau conforme aux pr\u00e9visions actuelles et susceptible de stimuler les investissements dans les cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement et la production de batteries.<\/p>

Il convient \u00e9galement de noter que la \u2018La \u2019SUVisation\u2019<\/strong> de la flotte, avec une forte proportion de SUV parmi les mod\u00e8les \u00e9lectriques (environ deux tiers de la gamme), augmente le poids moyen des v\u00e9hicules et, par cons\u00e9quent, les \u00e9missions par kilom\u00e8tre parcouru. En cons\u00e9quence, le poids moyen des voitures a consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9 au cours des trente derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es,<\/strong> l'att\u00e9nuation des gains unitaires li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectrification. Des mesures correctives, telles que les p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s fond\u00e9es sur la pond\u00e9ration et les notes \u00e9cologiques,<\/strong> ont \u00e9t\u00e9 introduites dans plusieurs pays europ\u00e9ens pour limiter cette d\u00e9rive.<\/p>

Dans ce contexte, la demande croissante de mobilit\u00e9 reste une question centrale :<\/strong> m\u00eame si les VE r\u00e9duisent les \u00e9missions par v\u00e9hicule, l'augmentation du nombre de kilom\u00e8tres parcourus et la croissance de la flotte peuvent annuler les gains \u00e9ventuels. La d\u00e9carbonisation n\u00e9cessite donc des leviers suppl\u00e9mentaires :<\/strong> par exemple, un transfert modal (augmentation de l'offre de transports publics, etc.), la r\u00e9duction des distances parcourues par les v\u00e9hicules priv\u00e9s et l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l'abandon des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 combustion interne (un facteur d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de \u22487 n\u00e9cessaire d'ici 2040 selon certaines estimations).<\/p>

Les risques g\u00e9opolitiques et industriels sont \u00e9galement r\u00e9els. Les tensions internationales, les revirements politiques (par exemple la mise en place de politiques climatiques moins ambitieuses dans certaines grandes puissances) et les inqui\u00e9tudes sur l'approvisionnement en m\u00e9taux critiques (capacit\u00e9 mini\u00e8re, r\u00e9serves disponibles, etc.) peuvent freiner la trajectoire. En outre, les enjeux politiques li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectrification compromettent l'acceptation sociale et la continuit\u00e9 des politiques publiques, exposant la transition \u00e0 des perturbations potentielles.<\/strong><\/p>

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Les pays \u00e9mergents suivent \u00e9galement des trajectoires vari\u00e9es.<\/strong> La part des VE dans leur flotte reste faible, mais il existe des facteurs favorables :<\/strong> des incitations \u00e0 la production (Inde), l'arriv\u00e9e de mod\u00e8les plus abordables (d\u00e9veloppement de nouveaux programmes chinois, march\u00e9 latino-asiatique), ou le d\u00e9veloppement des cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement. Malgr\u00e9 ces signaux, la contribution future des pays \u00e9mergents<\/strong> aux \u00e9missions li\u00e9es aux transports pourrait rester plus faible que pr\u00e9vu, selon certains sc\u00e9narios, mais il n'en reste pas moins que l'on peut s'attendre \u00e0 ce qu'il y ait une augmentation des \u00e9missions de CO leur \u00e9lectrification reste une opportunit\u00e9 importante pour limiter l'augmentation globale des \u00e9missions.<\/strong><\/p>

En ce qui concerne l'impact \u00e0 court terme sur le climat, l'effet des VE est d\u00e9j\u00e0 perceptible,<\/strong> m\u00eame si elle est limit\u00e9e : par exemple, l'\u00e9lectrification du parc automobile europ\u00e9en devrait permettre d'atteindre les objectifs suivants \u00e9viter des dizaines de millions de tonnes de CO2 par an<\/strong> - un signal positif, mais insuffisant par rapport aux \u00e9missions totales du secteur, qui augmentent dans plusieurs r\u00e9gions. Pour atteindre la limite de 1,5\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement de la plan\u00e8te,<\/strong> L'\u00e9lectrification doit faire partie d'une strat\u00e9gie syst\u00e9mique plus globale.<\/p>

En conclusion,<\/strong> l'exemple de l'automobile montre que la volont\u00e9 politique et des signaux r\u00e9glementaires clairs peut produire des r\u00e9sultats rapides et significatifs.<\/strong> L'\u00e9lectrification est une technologie \u00e9prouv\u00e9e qui offre d'importants co-b\u00e9n\u00e9fices<\/strong> (qualit\u00e9 de l'air, r\u00e9duction de la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard des importations de combustibles fossiles) et un levier industriel strat\u00e9gique. Mais pour transformer ces progr\u00e8s en une contribution durable \u00e0 la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, nous devons.. :<\/strong><\/p>

1. d\u00e9carboniser<\/strong> le mix \u00e9lectrique ;<\/p>

2. bordure de trottoir<\/strong> SUVisation et limitation du poids moyen des v\u00e9hicules ;<\/p>

3. promouvoir<\/strong> un transfert modal et une r\u00e9duction de la demande d'\u00e9nergie pour les d\u00e9placements ;<\/p>

4. garantir<\/strong> la r\u00e9silience des cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement en mat\u00e9riaux critiques ;<\/p>

5. maintenir<\/strong> des politiques publiques stables et coordonn\u00e9es au niveau international.<\/p>

Ainsi, bien que l'\u00e9lectrification des v\u00e9hicules soit un r\u00e9el d\u00e9fi pour l'\u00e9conomie europ\u00e9enne, il n'en demeure pas moins qu'il est n\u00e9cessaire d'en tenir compte. levier technique et industriel<\/strong>, mais cela ne suffit pas. Seule une approche syst\u00e9mique, combinant r\u00e9glementation, infrastructure, sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et politique industrielle, peut y rem\u00e9dier, permettra d'ancrer la transition du secteur des transports sur une trajectoire de long terme compatible avec un r\u00e9chauffement de +1,5\u00b0C.<\/strong><\/p>

R\u00c9F\u00c9RENCES<\/p>

https:\/\/www.polytechnique-insights.com\/tribunes\/planete\/climat-les-voitures-electriques-sont-elles-en-bonne-voie<\/a>\/<\/p>

https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/publications\/state-of-climate-action-2023\/<\/a><\/p>

https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/publications\/decarbonising-transport-light-duty-vehicles\/<\/a><\/p>

https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg3\/chapter\/chapter-10\/<\/a><\/p>

https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S136403212200380X?via%3Dihub<\/a><\/p>

Rapport sur les \u00e9carts d'\u00e9mission 2024<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF ><\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Henri Philippe, associ\u00e9, Accuracy
<\/strong>Accuracy Talks Straight #14 - L'\u00e9clairage acad\u00e9mique<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The text below is a summary of the article published in the Polytechnique Insights newsletter on 14 May 2025, by Ana\u00efs Marechal, Anne de Bortoli, Associate Professor at the Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al and Associate Researcher at the \u00c9cole des Ponts ParisTech (IP Paris), and Jean-Philippe Hermine, Director General of the Institut mobilit\u00e9s en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":57673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,260],"tags":[435],"class_list":["post-57526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-automotive-mobility-analysis","tag-accuracy-talks-straight-14"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCar electrification: \u2018Satisfactory, but we can do better!\u2019 - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/lelectrification-des-voitures-est-satisfaisante-mais-nous-pouvons-faire-mieux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Car electrification: \u2018Satisfactory, but we can do better!\u2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The text below is a summary of the article published in the Polytechnique Insights newsletter on 14 May 2025, by Ana\u00efs Marechal, Anne de Bortoli, Associate Professor at the Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al and Associate Researcher at the \u00c9cole des Ponts ParisTech (IP Paris), and Jean-Philippe Hermine, Director General of the Institut mobilit\u00e9s en […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/lelectrification-des-voitures-est-satisfaisante-mais-nous-pouvons-faire-mieux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Accuracy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-04T09:25:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-12T08:44:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/shutterstock_2128781381.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Aziliz TEILLIAIS\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Aziliz TEILLIAIS\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/en_gb\\\/car-electrification-satisfactory-but-we-can-do-better\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/en_gb\\\/car-electrification-satisfactory-but-we-can-do-better\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Aziliz TEILLIAIS\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13870522b85390da9c0f53f9c0064f3d\"},\"headline\":\"Car electrification: \u2018Satisfactory, but we can do better!\u2019\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-04T09:25:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-12T08:44:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/en_gb\\\/car-electrification-satisfactory-but-we-can-do-better\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":965,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/en_gb\\\/car-electrification-satisfactory-but-we-can-do-better\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.accuracy.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_2128781381.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Accuracy Talks Straight 14\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis\",\"Automotive - 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