{"id":52562,"date":"2025-04-22T09:58:32","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T07:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=52562"},"modified":"2025-04-22T10:18:52","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T08:18:52","slug":"le-modele-de-banque-de-detail-est-il-au-bord-de-leffondrement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/is-the-retail-banking-model-on-the-brink-of-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Le mod\u00e8le de banque de d\u00e9tail est-il au bord de l'effondrement ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Le mod\u00e8le de banque de d\u00e9tail est-il au bord de l'effondrement ?<\/strong><\/p>

Depuis plus de dix ans, de nouveaux acteurs viennent bousculer les banques traditionnelles. Jusqu'\u00e0 r\u00e9cemment, la conqu\u00eate de ces nouveaux acteurs se limitait \u00e0 une client\u00e8le \u00e9loign\u00e9e et peu active. Aujourd'hui, non seulement ils s\u00e9duisent de plus en plus de clients - BoursoBank, par exemple, en compte 7,5 millions - mais ils attirent aussi de plus en plus ceux qui \u00e9taient auparavant actifs dans les banques traditionnelles. Serait-ce le tournant ?<\/p>

Les fermetures d'agences bancaires s'acc\u00e9l\u00e8rent en France<\/strong><\/p>

Apr\u00e8s une ann\u00e9e 2023 difficile, o\u00f9 les revenus de la banque de d\u00e9tail ont recul\u00e9 jusqu'\u00e0 15% pour certains acteurs par rapport \u00e0 2022 en raison de l'impact de la hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat sur les marges d'int\u00e9r\u00eat, la plupart des banques fran\u00e7aises ont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 2024 comme l'ann\u00e9e du rebond. Cette affirmation pourrait bien \u00eatre justifi\u00e9e puisque les revenus de l'activit\u00e9 de d\u00e9tail ont augment\u00e9 en moyenne de 2%. Le rebond a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 plus fort au second semestre, ce qui indique une tendance positive.<\/p>

N\u00e9anmoins, si l'on compare les performances des banques fran\u00e7aises \u00e0 celles de leurs meilleures cons\u0153urs europ\u00e9ennes, les \u00e9carts de coefficient d'exploitation et de ROE restent significatifs. La banque fran\u00e7aise la plus efficace est le Cr\u00e9dit Mutuel, avec un coefficient d'exploitation de 56% en 2024, contre 43% pour Santander et 38% pour UniCredit. Le meilleur ROE fran\u00e7ais, 10% pour BNPP, est \u00e9galement loin des 13% de Santander.<\/p>

Les raisons en sont multiples. Tout d'abord, les banques europ\u00e9ennes sortent d'un haut de cycle gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la remont\u00e9e des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat, alors que c'est l'inverse pour les banques fran\u00e7aises. Ensuite, les marges sur les cr\u00e9dits aux particuliers et aux entreprises sont plus faibles en France, 1% en moyenne contre 2% en Europe. Enfin, le r\u00e9seau d'agences fran\u00e7ais, de moins en moins efficace dans la conqu\u00eate de la client\u00e8le, est deux fois plus dense. Ces ajustements devraient donc se poursuivre.<\/p>

Remise en cause de l'hypercroissance de BoursoBank<\/strong><\/p>

Au cours des dix derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, une nouvelle g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de banques num\u00e9riques, telles que Revolut et N26, a \u00e9merg\u00e9 avec un succ\u00e8s commercial ind\u00e9niable (50 millions de clients pour Revolut dans le monde et 4 millions en France), tout en continuant \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des pertes. La hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat en 2022-2023, combin\u00e9e \u00e0 l'atteinte d'une masse critique, a permis \u00e0 plusieurs n\u00e9obanques, comme Revolut, d'atteindre l'\u00e9quilibre financier, marquant ainsi une nouvelle \u00e9tape dans leur d\u00e9veloppement.<\/p>

Parall\u00e8lement, voire avant, les banques traditionnelles ont lanc\u00e9 leurs propres banques en ligne, avec des r\u00e9sultats mitig\u00e9s. BoursoBank est celle qui a conquis le plus de clients (environ 7,5 millions), mais elle est rest\u00e9e d\u00e9ficitaire jusqu'\u00e0 r\u00e9cemment. Fortuneo, en revanche, n'a pas vis\u00e9 pendant longtemps un nombre aussi \u00e9lev\u00e9 de clients, mais elle est devenue rentable depuis longtemps gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 sa client\u00e8le haut de gamme et \u00e0 sa forte orientation vers l'\u00e9pargne.<\/p>

Plusieurs d\u00e9fis se profilent \u00e0 l'horizon. BoursoBank doit r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 transformer ses millions de clients secondaires en clients principaux. Fortuneo, Hello bank ! et BforBank, qui visent tous \u00e0 doubler ou tripler leur base de clients, doivent s'imposer face \u00e0 des leaders bien \u00e9tablis. Revolut, quant \u00e0 elle, doit \u00e9largir son offre pour consolider sa position et augmenter le revenu par client. L'\u00e8re de la croissance facile touche \u00e0 sa fin et l'heure est aux strat\u00e9gies de consolidation.<\/p>

BNP Paribas pr\u00e9voit de fermer un tiers de ses agences d'ici \u00e0 2030<\/strong><\/p>

Le march\u00e9 fran\u00e7ais de la banque de d\u00e9tail est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 des d\u00e9fis majeurs, notamment une rentabilit\u00e9 plus faible qu'ailleurs en Europe en raison de marges faibles (1% contre 2% en moyenne), d'un mod\u00e8le protecteur (\u00e9pargne r\u00e9glement\u00e9e et pr\u00eats \u00e0 taux fixe) et d'un r\u00e9seau tr\u00e8s dense. Dans un contexte de faible volume de cr\u00e9dits immobiliers (principal vecteur de conqu\u00eate de nouveaux clients) et d'agressivit\u00e9 des acteurs num\u00e9riques, l'efficacit\u00e9 de ce r\u00e9seau est remise en cause.<\/p>

Pour doper la rentabilit\u00e9 des banques traditionnelles, il existe au moins deux types de leviers, hors ceux visant \u00e0 diluer le poids de la banque de d\u00e9tail en France dans les revenus globaux. D'abord, le mod\u00e8le de service : m\u00eame s'ils ne convergent pas parfaitement (LCL, Ark\u00e9a, etc.), les annonces r\u00e9centes montrent une volont\u00e9 de cr\u00e9er deux types de clients : les clients \u00e0 distance, qui sont principalement servis par le num\u00e9rique, et les clients \u00e0 valeur, qui ont acc\u00e8s au r\u00e9seau physique.<\/p>

Cependant, cet ajustement du mod\u00e8le de service ne suffira probablement pas \u00e0 restaurer la rentabilit\u00e9 d'un m\u00e9tier soumis \u00e0 de fortes pressions depuis plus de dix ans. Cela nous am\u00e8ne au deuxi\u00e8me levier : le r\u00e9seau d'agences des banques fran\u00e7aises, deux fois plus important que celui des banques europ\u00e9ennes (50 agences pour 100 000 habitants en France contre 25 en Europe), pourrait \u00eatre ajust\u00e9 pour que le ratio co\u00fbt\/service soit plus en phase avec les revenus. Des exemples devraient suivre.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Nicolas Darbo, associ\u00e9, Accuracy<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the retail banking model on the brink of collapse? For over ten years, new players have been challenging traditional banks. Until recently, the conquest of these new players was limited to customers who were distant and not very active. Now, not only are they winning over more and more customers, with BoursoBank, for example, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":52569,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,265],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-financial-services-banking-insurance-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs the retail banking model on the brink of collapse? - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/le-modele-de-banque-de-detail-est-il-au-bord-de-leffondrement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the retail banking model on the brink of collapse?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is the retail banking model on the brink of collapse? 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