{"id":52438,"date":"2025-04-17T14:27:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T12:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=52438"},"modified":"2025-04-17T14:28:47","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T12:28:47","slug":"briefing-economique-deficits-droits-et-dette","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/economic-brief-deficits-duties-and-debt\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Brief - D\u00e9ficits, droits et dette"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans cette \u00e9dition de la Note \u00e9conomique, nous abordons les trois d : d\u00e9ficits, droits de douane et dettes. Nous verrons comment les d\u00e9penses publiques continuent d'augmenter aux \u00c9tats-Unis, malgr\u00e9 un d\u00e9ficit croissant ; quel est l'impact des droits de douane impos\u00e9s par Trump sur le commerce mondial ; et comment les niveaux d'endettement \u00e9voluent \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale. Plongeons dans le vif du sujet.<\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9penses du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral continuent d'augmenter<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sources : Accuracy : Accuracy, Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales am\u00e9ricaines continuent d'augmenter et le d\u00e9ficit atteint des niveaux monumentaux. Malgr\u00e9 l'activit\u00e9 fr\u00e9n\u00e9tique du Department for Government Efficiency, les d\u00e9penses ont atteint $603 milliards en f\u00e9vrier 2025, soit $40 milliards ou 7% de plus que le m\u00eame mois de l'ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Si certains minist\u00e8res ont pu proc\u00e9der \u00e0 des r\u00e9ductions (par exemple, $6 milliards pour l'\u00e9ducation, $300 millions pour l'USAID), celles-ci ont \u00e9t\u00e9 largement compens\u00e9es par les augmentations enregistr\u00e9es ailleurs : plus $5 milliards d'une ann\u00e9e sur l'autre pour la sant\u00e9, plus $8 milliards pour Medicare, plus $10 milliards pour le service de la dette, et la liste n'est pas exhaustive. En s'effor\u00e7ant de ma\u00eetriser les d\u00e9penses de l'\u00c9tat, ne serait-ce pas l'une des raisons pour lesquelles Trump augmente les droits de douane, essentiellement pour accro\u00eetre les revenus ?<\/p>\n

Croissance : un fort impact en Am\u00e9rique, plus limit\u00e9 en Europe<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sources : Accuracy, OCDE<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Examinons maintenant ces droits de douane. L'OCDE a \u00e9valu\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les \u00c9tats-Unis augmentent les droits de douane de 10% pour tous les pays, qui prennent \u00e0 leur tour des contre-mesures de la m\u00eame ampleur. Au final, selon l'OCDE, cela se traduirait par une baisse de 2% du commerce mondial au cours des deux ann\u00e9es suivant l'ann\u00e9e de mise en \u0153uvre des droits de douane. L'impact sur la croissance mondiale pour chacune de ces deux ann\u00e9es serait de -0,3 point, tandis que l'inflation globale augmenterait de 0,4 point chaque ann\u00e9e \u00e9galement. Il convient de noter que c'est en Am\u00e9rique du Nord que les cons\u00e9quences seraient les plus graves, les m\u00e9nages subissant de plein fouet les effets des droits de douane : sur trois ans, le revenu r\u00e9el des m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains diminuerait de 1,25%, soit une baisse de $1.600 du revenu disponible. L'investissement souffrirait \u00e9galement, chutant de -2% aux \u00c9tats-Unis (\u00e0 titre de comparaison, l'investissement de la zone euro chuterait de -0,6%). Certes, les finances publiques b\u00e9n\u00e9ficieraient d'un premier coup de pouce gr\u00e2ce aux importantes rentr\u00e9es d'argent g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es par les droits de douane, estim\u00e9es \u00e0 1,2% du PIB pour les Etats-Unis. Cependant, cette manne serait plus que compens\u00e9e par la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l'environnement macro\u00e9conomique. Pour maintenir un d\u00e9ficit stable, la Maison Blanche devrait r\u00e9duire davantage les d\u00e9penses ou augmenter les imp\u00f4ts.<\/p>\n

Un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 de dette obligataire mondiale<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sources : Accuracy, OCDE<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Passons \u00e0 la dette. Comment financer ces d\u00e9ficits, sans parler des investissements n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense, \u00e0 la transition num\u00e9rique, \u00e0 la transition \u00e9cologique ? Selon l'OCDE, le stock mondial de dettes atteint $100 trillions, dont $55 trillions de dettes souveraines. Le poids de la dette des \u00c9tats continue d'augmenter, le ratio dette\/PIB atteignant environ 85% en 2025 pour les pays de l'OCDE contre 75% en 2019. Cependant, l'organisation note \u00e9galement que plus de 50% de dette souveraine pour les membres de l'OCDE, 30% de dette souveraine pour les pays \u00e9mergents, 63% d'obligations d'entreprises de qualit\u00e9 et 74% d'obligations d'entreprises sp\u00e9culatives g\u00e9n\u00e8rent des charges d'int\u00e9r\u00eat inf\u00e9rieures au taux moyen du march\u00e9. De mani\u00e8re quelque peu alarmante, l'\u00e9tude indique que 45% de la dette souveraine des \u00c9tats membres de l'OCDE arriveront \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance en 2027. Le refinancement sera donc co\u00fbteux, ce qui alourdira encore la charge pesant sur les budgets nationaux. Et avec la menace de Trump de ne pas rembourser les obligations d'\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricaines d\u00e9tenues par la Chine, qui serait pr\u00eat \u00e0 prendre ce risque ?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF ><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this edition of the Economic Brief, we touch on the three d\u2019s: deficits, duties and debts. We will see how government spending continues to the rise in the US, despite a burgeoning deficit; what the impact of Trump\u2019s customs duties is on global trade; and how debt levels are developing globally. Let\u2019s dive in. 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