{"id":45050,"date":"2024-06-20T17:57:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T15:57:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=45050"},"modified":"2025-10-23T14:40:42","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T12:40:42","slug":"du-point-de-vue-economique-comprenons-nous-les-implications-economiques-de-lintelligence-artificielle-generative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/economic-point-of-view-do-we-understand-the-economic-implications-of-generative-artificial-intelligence\/","title":{"rendered":"Point de vue \u00e9conomique - Comprenons-nous les implications \u00e9conomiques de l'intelligence artificielle g\u00e9n\u00e9rative ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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L'intelligence artificielle g\u00e9n\u00e9rative (IAG) suscite beaucoup d'int\u00e9r\u00eat. Les preuves de cet enthousiasme ne manquent pas. Selon une enqu\u00eate r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par S&P Global Market Intelligence aupr\u00e8s d'un \u00e9chantillon de 728 entreprises, 49% ont r\u00e9ellement l'intention d'investir dans l'IAG, 28% examinent la question de pr\u00e8s et 23% sont incertaines. Factset, une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de gestion de donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res, nous apprend que 179 des 500 entreprises qui composent l'indice boursier S&P 500 (36%) ont mentionn\u00e9 l'intelligence artificielle (IA) lors de la pr\u00e9sentation de leurs r\u00e9sultats pour le quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2023. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, la moyenne sur cinq ans est de 73. Le pourcentage est encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 dans le secteur de la technologie (plus de 80%). Le nombre (absolu) de r\u00e9f\u00e9rences \u00e0 l'IA \u00e9tait d'environ 70 pour les \"champions\" Meta, Microsoft et Alphabet et de plus de 100 pour NVIDIA, la star du march\u00e9.<\/p>

Les particuliers ne sont pas en reste. Selon les chiffres fournis par la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 canadienne ind\u00e9pendante de recherche \u00e9conomique BCA, ChatGPT, l'un des pionniers des GAI, a franchi le seuil des 100 millions d'utilisateurs en deux mois. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, il a fallu cinq ans \u00e0 Facebook et un an \u00e0 TikTok pour atteindre ce niveau. Les \u00e9pargnants et les investisseurs sont sensibles au d\u00e9veloppement de cette technologie. Dans le cas am\u00e9ricain, la performance boursi\u00e8re des actions concern\u00e9es est d'autant plus impressionnante que le mod\u00e8le d'affaires choisi int\u00e8gre un d\u00e9veloppement important des GAI.\"\"<\/p>

Pourquoi cet int\u00e9r\u00eat ? Pour les particuliers, c'est sans doute par curiosit\u00e9 et aussi comme aide \u00e0 la production de contenu. Pour les entreprises, l'ambition est \u00e9vidente et elle est double : utiliser une technologie financi\u00e8rement abordable et am\u00e9liorer l'efficacit\u00e9 du processus de cr\u00e9ation de valeur. Pour les investisseurs, il s'agit de parier d\u00e8s maintenant sur une histoire boursi\u00e8re qui devrait \u00eatre gagnante. Examinons de plus pr\u00e8s trois aspects du RAG : le co\u00fbt des investissements n\u00e9cessaires, son impact macro\u00e9conomique et sa valorisation par les march\u00e9s financiers. Commen\u00e7ons par les co\u00fbts. Ils peuvent \u00eatre regroup\u00e9s en trois grandes cat\u00e9gories : l'infrastructure informatique, la formation des mod\u00e8les et l'utilisation des mod\u00e8les form\u00e9s.<\/p>

Deux dynamiques se dessinent. Premi\u00e8rement, les co\u00fbts semblent \u00eatre proportionnels \u00e0 la taille des mod\u00e8les ; deuxi\u00e8mement, une tendance marqu\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse des co\u00fbts est attendue. Selon BCA, les co\u00fbts d'infrastructure et de formation pourraient diminuer de 75% d'ici 2030. Les co\u00fbts d'utilisation pourraient diminuer encore plus rapidement. Chaque entreprise souhaitant utiliser les BGS doit alors d\u00e9terminer la meilleure approche pour y parvenir : quelle taille de mod\u00e8le et comment l'obtenir (en le d\u00e9veloppant en interne ou en s'approvisionnant \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur). Il convient de noter que la ma\u00eetrise du mod\u00e8le sera une contrainte pour la plupart d'entre elles. La double solution d'un ou plusieurs mod\u00e8les plus petits produits \u00e0 partir d'un code source ouvert devrait s'imposer, car elle est plus \u00e9conomique. Tout ceci permet de conclure que de nombreuses entreprises se lanceront dans l'aventure des GAI, \u00e0 condition bien s\u00fbr que cette perspective d'\u00e9volution des co\u00fbts se confirme. Quel sera l'impact sur l'\u00e9conomie ? Positif, bien s\u00fbr, et m\u00eame consid\u00e9rable, si l'on en croit les faiseurs d'opinion que sont les grandes banques d'investissement et les cabinets de conseil en strat\u00e9gie internationale. Goldman Sachs mise sur une augmentation du PIB mondial de 7 000 milliards de dollars au cours des 10 prochaines ann\u00e9es (avec un niveau d'environ 100 000 milliards de dollars en 2023), tandis que McKinsey se montre un peu moins optimiste, avec une fourchette comprise entre 2 600 et 4 400 milliards de dollars.<\/p>

Deux remarques s'imposent. Tout d'abord, la litt\u00e9rature acad\u00e9mique conclut que l'impact \u00e9conomique de la g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisation des RGE est incertain, en termes de productivit\u00e9, d'emploi et donc de croissance. Il y a un manque de donn\u00e9es et aussi un manque d'informations sur le soutien de politique \u00e9conomique qui devrait \u00eatre mis en place. Deuxi\u00e8mement, il est possible de remonter dans l'histoire et de rappeler les gains de productivit\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s par les changements de technologie. Prenons le cas am\u00e9ricain et dressons un tableau de l'\u00e9volution de la productivit\u00e9 aux \u00c9tats-Unis depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. La g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisation des ordinateurs personnels (dans les ann\u00e9es 1980) et de l'internet (dans la d\u00e9cennie suivante) a entra\u00een\u00e9 une hausse de la productivit\u00e9. Cette croissance n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement spectaculaire : si l'on exclut les p\u00e9riodes de r\u00e9cession, elle s'\u00e9tablit \u00e0 +1,8% par an entre 1975 et 1979 ; +2,1% entre 1981 et 1988 (diffusion de l'ordinateur personnel) ; +2,4% entre 1989 et 2005 (diffusion de l'internet) ; +1,5% par la suite (entre 2006 et 2023).<\/p>

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Avec ce recul, nous sommes enclins \u00e0 envisager une augmentation plut\u00f4t modeste de la productivit\u00e9, et pas sur une tr\u00e8s longue p\u00e9riode. Sans nous prononcer sur l'impact des RAG sur l'emploi, nous serions enclins \u00e0 trouver que les hypoth\u00e8ses de Goldman Sachs et de McKinsey sont peut-\u00eatre trop optimistes. Cette double approche, m\u00eame si elle n'est que provisoire, nous incite \u00e0 reconsid\u00e9rer l'attitude des march\u00e9s des capitaux \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard des RAG. Si les co\u00fbts de mise en \u0153uvre et d'exploitation diminuent comme pr\u00e9vu, et si les r\u00e9sultats en mati\u00e8re de productivit\u00e9 et de croissance sont r\u00e9ellement \u00e9lev\u00e9s, la traduction de ces attentes en performance boursi\u00e8re peut se comprendre. Mais que se passe-t-il si cet optimisme est d\u00e9\u00e7u ? Les raisons d'une telle d\u00e9ception sont faciles \u00e0 imaginer : outre la non-confirmation des hypoth\u00e8ses, on peut imaginer une flamb\u00e9e des co\u00fbts de l'\u00e9nergie, des droits d'auteur on\u00e9reux ou une d\u00e9stabilisation du march\u00e9 du travail que les initiatives de politique \u00e9conomique peinent \u00e0 corriger. Tout cela pour dire que les march\u00e9s financiers semblent avoir adopt\u00e9 un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 l'eau de rose.<\/p>

Est-ce \u00e0 la limite de l'exag\u00e9ration ? Et puis il y a la question de l'organisation du march\u00e9 des GAI. Il est aujourd'hui domin\u00e9 par certains des plus grands acteurs de l'industrie technologique. Cette situation est-elle durable ? Si ce n'est pas le cas (du fait de l'action du r\u00e9gulateur ou de l'\u00e9mergence de nouveaux concurrents), quel sera l'impact sur les perspectives de gains et les multiples de capitalisation ?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) is attracting a lot of attention. There is no shortage of evidence of this enthusiasm. According to a survey carried out by S&P Global Market Intelligence among a sample of 728 companies, 49% really intend to invest in GAI, 28% are looking closely at the issue and 23% are unsure. Factset, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":57551,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,301,436],"tags":[281],"class_list":["post-45050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-article-talk-straight","category-digital-technology-software-analysis","tag-accuracy-talks-straight-10"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic point of view - Do we understand the economic implications of generative artificial intelligence? - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/du-point-de-vue-economique-comprenons-nous-les-implications-economiques-de-lintelligence-artificielle-generative\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic point of view - Do we understand the economic implications of generative artificial intelligence?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) is attracting a lot of attention. 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