{"id":22545,"date":"2019-10-09T06:54:30","date_gmt":"2019-10-09T04:54:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/accuracy-brexit-index-relations-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-have-already-deteriorated-by-12-since-june-2016\/"},"modified":"2024-01-30T18:08:22","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T17:08:22","slug":"indice-de-precision-brexit-les-relations-entre-le-royaume-uni-et-lunion-europeenne-se-sont-deja-deteriorees-par-12-depuis-juin-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/accuracy-brexit-index-relations-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-have-already-deteriorated-by-12-since-june-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Accuracy Brexit Index : les relations entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Union europ\u00e9enne se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9es de 12% depuis juin 2016."},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

EN BREF<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Il y a plus de trois ans, en juin 2016, les citoyens britanniques ont vot\u00e9 en faveur du retrait du Royaume-Uni de l'UE. Depuis lors, les dirigeants politiques europ\u00e9ens et britanniques s'efforcent de trouver un moyen de respecter le vote populaire, tout en pr\u00e9servant les \u00e9conomies et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des deux partenaires. Leurs difficult\u00e9s s'expliquent par le niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 d'int\u00e9gration entre les deux \u00e9conomies, apr\u00e8s plusieurs d\u00e9cennies de d\u00e9veloppement du march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n

Accuracy a analys\u00e9 l'\u00e9conomie qui unit les deux partenaires, correspondant aux quatre libert\u00e9s garanties par le march\u00e9 unique europ\u00e9en : la libre circulation des biens, des services, des capitaux et des personnes. Les Pr\u00e9cision Indice Brexit<\/a> combine ces quatre \u00e9l\u00e9ments en un indice agr\u00e9g\u00e9 dont l'\u00e9volution permet de suivre dans le temps le processus de (d\u00e9s)int\u00e9gration des deux \u00e9conomies.
\nSur cette base, cinq macro-tendances se d\u00e9gagent :<\/p>\n

- Alors que le Brexit n'est encore qu'une destination future vers laquelle le Royaume-Uni se dirige, les relations avec l'UE - telles que mesur\u00e9es par l'enqu\u00eate de l Pr\u00e9cision Indice Brexit<\/a> - se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9es \u00e0 12%.<\/p>\n

- Cette baisse effective du niveau d'int\u00e9gration entre les deux \u00e9conomies s'explique par l'incertitude g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par le vote de 2016. Elle affecte principalement les flux d'investissements (diminution de 13% de l'indice des investissements) et les flux migratoires (diminution de 25% de l'indice des migrations).<\/p>\n

- L'analyse de l'\u00e9volution des \u00e9changes entre les deux \u00e9conomies r\u00e9v\u00e8le deux dynamiques diff\u00e9rentes. D'une part, les flux de capitaux et de personnes sont largement d\u00e9termin\u00e9s par les anticipations des agents \u00e9conomiques et le niveau de pr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 de la politique \u00e9conomique. L'impact psychologique du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum de 2016 ainsi que le contexte d'incertitude se sont imm\u00e9diatement traduits par une baisse des \u00e9changes. En revanche, les flux de biens et services n'enregistrent qu'une faible baisse depuis juin 2016, port\u00e9e par le fait que ces flux d\u00e9pendent d'arbitrages de co\u00fbts \u00e0 plus court terme. L'absence de modification des conditions d'\u00e9changes avant le Brexit a permis de maintenir un certain niveau de relations commerciales.<\/p>\n

- Malgr\u00e9 la baisse de la migration europ\u00e9enne, on observe d\u00e9j\u00e0 un r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage des flux migratoires vers le Royaume-Uni, les populations asiatiques rempla\u00e7ant les flux qui provenaient auparavant de l'UE. Cette tendance devrait se poursuivre \u00e0 long terme et s'explique par le besoin consid\u00e9rable de main-d'\u0153uvre dans certains secteurs de l'\u00e9conomie britannique. Les immigrants europ\u00e9ens ont \u00e9t\u00e9 remplac\u00e9s par des immigrants asiatiques \u00e0 tel point que le nombre total d'immigrants entrant au Royaume-Uni est rest\u00e9 relativement stable.<\/p>\n

- Il est probable qu'\u00e0 long terme, apr\u00e8s la mise en \u0153uvre du Brexit, les tendances \u00e0 court terme observ\u00e9es \u00e0 la suite du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum de 2016 s'inversent : les \u00e9changes de biens et de services devraient diminuer structurellement, tandis que l'incertitude entourant les conditions du retrait du Royaume-Uni s'att\u00e9nuera et pourrait all\u00e9ger les contraintes pesant sur l'investissement. Toutefois, il est peu probable que le niveau d'investissement atteigne ses niveaux d'avant le Brexit, et les flux migratoires en provenance de l'UE d\u00e9pendront des nouvelles conditions d'entr\u00e9e. Il est \u00e9galement peu probable qu'ils atteignent leurs niveaux historiques.<\/p>\n

\n
Leontine Koens-Betz, associ\u00e9e directrice - Pays-Bas<\/em><\/span><\/h5>\n
Charles Maz\u00e9, Associ\u00e9 - France<\/em><\/span><\/h5>\n
Daniel Nassar, Associ\u00e9 - France<\/em><\/span><\/h5>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  IN BRIEF More than three years ago, in June 2016, the British public voted in favour of the UK\u2019s withdrawal from the EU. Since then, European and British political leaders have been struggling to find a way to respect the popular vote, whilst preserving the economies and societies of the two partners. Their difficulties […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[174],"class_list":["post-22545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-perspectives","tag-perspectives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAccuracy Brexit Index: relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have already deteriorated by 12% since June 2016 - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/indice-de-precision-brexit-les-relations-entre-le-royaume-uni-et-lunion-europeenne-se-sont-deja-deteriorees-par-12-depuis-juin-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Accuracy Brexit Index: relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have already deteriorated by 12% since June 2016\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  IN BRIEF More than three years ago, in June 2016, the British public voted in favour of the UK\u2019s withdrawal from the EU. 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