{"id":22268,"date":"2022-11-04T15:08:58","date_gmt":"2022-11-04T14:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/accuracy-talks-straight-6-economic-point-of-view\/"},"modified":"2024-09-09T17:49:18","modified_gmt":"2024-09-09T15:49:18","slug":"accuracy-talks-straight-6-economic-point-of-view-the-twin-green-and-digital-transitions-resolve-for-investment-and-perspicacity-for-macroeconomic-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/accuracy-talks-straight-6-economic-point-of-view-the-twin-green-and-digital-transitions-resolve-for-investment-and-perspicacity-for-macroeconomic-management\/","title":{"rendered":"La double transition verte et num\u00e9rique : d\u00e9termination pour l'investissement et perspicacit\u00e9 pour la gestion macro\u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"

L'\u00e9conomie mondiale est confront\u00e9e \u00e0 de nombreux d\u00e9fis. <\/strong>\u00c0 court terme, nous assistons \u00e0 un rythme inhabituel des prix et \u00e0 une d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration des perspectives de croissance, dans des environnements politiques compliqu\u00e9s sur le plan interne dans de nombreux pays et dans un environnement inqui\u00e9tant sur le plan international (actions de la Russie en Ukraine, de la Chine autour de Ta\u00efwan et de l'Iran avec ses voisins arabes). \u00c0 long terme, <\/strong>le vieillissement des populations est un sujet de pr\u00e9occupation dans un certain nombre de r\u00e9gions du monde, la \"r\u00e9gulation\" \u00e9conomique semble s'\u00e9loigner du corpus n\u00e9olib\u00e9ral au profit d'une approche plus keyn\u00e9sienne, et le vieillissement des populations est un sujet de pr\u00e9occupation dans un certain nombre de r\u00e9gions du monde. la double transition verte et num\u00e9rique est en cours.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Arr\u00eatons-nous sur ce dernier point. La transition verte est essentielle. <\/strong>Elle est indispensable \u00e0 la pr\u00e9servation de la plan\u00e8te et de toutes les esp\u00e8ces qui y vivent. Il faut \"d\u00e9carboner\" l'industrie et les transports, r\u00e9ussir la r\u00e9novation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique des b\u00e2timents et d\u00e9velopper \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle les \u00e9nergies renouvelables. La transition num\u00e9rique est \u00e9galement indispensable. <\/strong>Il s'agit d'un processus continu visant \u00e0 permettre aux entreprises, aux administrations et aux m\u00e9nages d'int\u00e9grer les nouvelles technologies (par exemple, le nuage, l'internet des objets ou l'intelligence artificielle) dans de nombreux aspects de leurs activit\u00e9s. Il convient de garder \u00e0 l'esprit que les transformations n\u00e9cessaires ne sont pas des questions purement technologiques ; l'aspect humain est tr\u00e8s important, avec des adaptations culturelles et comportementales \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le montant des investissements en jeu est impressionnant. Pour la seule zone euro, envisager une enveloppe annuelle de 500 milliards d'euros par an, pendant plusieurs ann\u00e9es (certainement pas moins de 10), ne semble pas d\u00e9raisonnable. C'est du moins l'ordre de grandeur d\u00e9termin\u00e9 en r\u00e9sumant certains travaux faisant autorit\u00e9 sur le sujet. Cela repr\u00e9sente plus de quatre points de PIB !<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Les sommes engag\u00e9es sont si importantes que s'interroger sur leurs implications macro\u00e9conomiques ne serait pas un exercice futile. Proposons une pr\u00e9vision simple jusqu'en 2032. <\/strong>Le point de d\u00e9part est cette volont\u00e9 d'investissement li\u00e9e aux transitions jumelles : 500 milliards d'euros par an, qui, en passant de la monnaie courante \u00e0 la monnaie constante (la monnaie utilis\u00e9e pour mesurer la croissance \u00e9conomique - celle du PIB), devient 440 milliards d'euros. Les autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments de la demande, y compris les d\u00e9penses d'investissement en dehors des transitions jumelles, restent sur la m\u00eame trajectoire que celle observ\u00e9e ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, \u00e0 une exception pr\u00e8s : les investissements suppl\u00e9mentaires se traduisent par davantage d'importations et donc par une r\u00e9duction de l'exc\u00e9dent du commerce ext\u00e9rieur. Pour cet exercice, nous supposons qu'il n'y aura pas de choc de prix ou de politique \u00e9conomique au cours de la p\u00e9riode.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

LE TABLEAU CI-DESSUS MET EN \u00c9VIDENCE LES PRINCIPALES IMPLICATIONS \u00c0 PRENDRE EN COMPTE.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

TROIS D'ENTRE EUX SONT PARTICULI\u00c8REMENT REMARQUABLES :<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

- La croissance du PIB atteindrait 1,5% par an. <\/strong>Si cet exercice de pr\u00e9vision semble raisonnable, force est de constater que le potentiel de croissance est estim\u00e9 \u00e0 1% par an. Bien s\u00fbr, on peut consid\u00e9rer que l'effort d'investissement suppl\u00e9mentaire contribuera \u00e0 plus de croissance. Mais on peut aussi d\u00e9fendre l'id\u00e9e que, au moins en partie, cette nouvelle accumulation de capital se substitue \u00e0 la destruction d'actifs fixes devenus obsol\u00e8tes.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il ne faut pas non plus oublier les \u00e9volutions d\u00e9mographiques qui envoient un message plut\u00f4t n\u00e9gatif sur la population active (effet \u00e0 compenser peut-\u00eatre par un retour \u00e0 une situation proche du plein emploi).<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Quoi qu'il en soit, un doute subsiste : la quantification bas\u00e9e sur ces hypoth\u00e8ses est-elle trop optimiste ?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

- La part de la consommation des m\u00e9nages dans le PIB diminuerait de 2,5 points <\/strong>sur la p\u00e9riode pour atteindre 49,5%. Le niveau actuel n'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 : 52% contre une moyenne de 55% entre 1995 et 2010 (et un maximum de 59% en 1980), p\u00e9riode qui a donc \u00e9t\u00e9 suivie d'un d\u00e9clin progressif. Avec le changement de \"r\u00e9gulation\" macro\u00e9conomique que l'on commence \u00e0 observer, qui met l'accent sur une croissance plus inclusive, est-ce vraiment cr\u00e9dible ?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

- Si le ratio investissement \/ PIB doit progresser de pr\u00e8s de 4,5 points d'ici 2032, <\/strong>l'\u00e9pargne doit suivre, c'est ainsi que fonctionnent les \u00e9quilibres macro\u00e9conomiques ! D'o\u00f9 cela peut-il venir ? En partie de la baisse de l'\u00e9pargne en Europe vers le reste du monde. Nous avons parl\u00e9 d'une baisse du commerce ext\u00e9rieur apr\u00e8s tout...<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pour le reste, il faudra choisir entre un effort d'\u00e9pargne plus important de la part des m\u00e9nages, une augmentation des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des entreprises et\/ou une diminution du d\u00e9ficit public.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

AUCUNE DE CES OPTIONS N'EST \u00c9VIDENTE.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le premier <\/strong>nous ram\u00e8ne \u00e0 la question de la r\u00e9duction de la consommation des m\u00e9nages dans le PIB ; nous venons de le voir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le deuxi\u00e8me <\/strong>sugg\u00e8re une nouvelle distorsion de la richesse cr\u00e9\u00e9e en faveur des entreprises. Mais cela pourrait aller \u00e0 l'encontre du sentiment actuel (nouvelle \"r\u00e9glementation\", y compris le d\u00e9veloppement de crit\u00e8res ESG - environnement, social et gouvernance)...<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le troisi\u00e8me <\/strong>semble raisonnable, bien s\u00fbr, mais il n'est pas facile de choisir entre la r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses courantes et l'augmentation des recettes fiscales (les investissements publics seraient tr\u00e8s probablement prot\u00e9g\u00e9s).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Si ce sc\u00e9nario n'est pas tout \u00e0 fait inacceptable, mais qu'il semble encore un peu \"foireux\", nous devons alors essayer d'imaginer ce qu'il serait raisonnable d'attendre sous la double contrainte de r\u00e9ussir les deux transitions et de ne pas se faire d'illusions sur la croissance \u00e9conomique future.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

En fait, l'ajustement ne peut se faire que dans deux domaines : <\/strong>soit (i) sur l'\u00e9pargne plac\u00e9e dans le reste du monde (la contrepartie de la balance commerciale ext\u00e9rieure), avec la possibilit\u00e9 que les flux s'inversent et que la zone euro doive \"importer\" de l'\u00e9pargne \u00e9trang\u00e8re, soit (ii) sur l'\u00e9pargne plac\u00e9e dans le reste du monde (la contrepartie de la balance commerciale ext\u00e9rieure). sur un ralentissement des d\u00e9penses de consommation <\/strong>(qu'il s'agisse d'un m\u00e9nage ou d'un gouvernement).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La premi\u00e8re solution affaiblirait l'Europe sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

En termes de macro\u00e9conomie, l'Europe appara\u00eetrait moins solide, ce qui renforcerait l'impression d\u00e9j\u00e0 donn\u00e9e par la micro\u00e9conomie (moindre rentabilit\u00e9 des entreprises de l'Ancien Monde par rapport \u00e0 celles du Nouveau Monde et moindre pr\u00e9sence dans les secteurs de demain) et par la politique (questions non r\u00e9solues de l'int\u00e9gration et de son r\u00f4le g\u00e9opolitique). Les \u00e9quilibres financiers qui en r\u00e9sulteront seront plus incertains, que ce soit en termes de taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat ou de taux de change ; il serait impossible de penser autrement.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La deuxi\u00e8me id\u00e9e, <\/strong>qui s'apparente \u00e9videmment \u00e0 la frugalit\u00e9, semble difficile \u00e0 mettre en place dans un environnement plus keyn\u00e9sien, marqu\u00e9 par une ambition de partage des richesses plus favorable aux m\u00e9nages. A moins, bien s\u00fbr, que les pouvoirs publics ne trouvent la formule gagnante pour inciter les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 \u00e9pargner davantage.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Nous le comprenons ; l'ambition de stimuler l'investissement, pour d'innombrables raisons valables, a des effets macro\u00e9conomiques d\u00e9stabilisants. Nous devons les anticiper et nous pr\u00e9parer ; apr\u00e8s tout, mieux vaut pr\u00e9venir que gu\u00e9rir.<\/strong> gu\u00e9rir...<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The world economy is facing numerous challenges. In the short term, we have an unusual rhythm in prices and a deterioration of growth prospects, taking place in complicated political environments internally in many countries and in a worrying environment internationally (actions of Russia in Ukraine, China around Taiwan and Iran with its Arab neighbours). In […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,60],"tags":[313],"class_list":["post-22268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data","category-insights","tag-accuracy-talks-straight-6"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe twin green and digital transitions: resolve for investment and perspicacity for macroeconomic management - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex,nofollow\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/fr\/accuracy-talks-straight-6-economic-point-of-view-the-twin-green-and-digital-transitions-resolve-for-investment-and-perspicacity-for-macroeconomic-management\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The twin green and digital transitions: resolve for investment and perspicacity for macroeconomic management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The world economy is facing numerous challenges. 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