1. How can banks steer the transition to net zero?
Amidst the general call for corporate climate responsibility, the banking industry finds itself at a crossroads: the net zero transition is no longer just a choice, but a responsibility driven by the goals set forth in the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. According to the IPCC, net zero emissions will be achieved when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are balanced by anthropogenic removals over a specified period. To restrict the temperature increase to under 1.5°C and limit the temperature overshoot, achieving net zero emissions globally by no later than 2050 (IEA) and significantly reducing them by 2030 is imperative (IPCC).
Undertaking the net zero transition is of dual importance for banks: they must achieve carbon neutrality within their own operations and they must steer the broader global economy on to a low-carbon trajectory, given their systematic importance.
However, committing to net zero implies robust data systems and methodologies to accurately assess and reduce a bank’s emissions, especially scope 3 emissions related to its financing and investment activities. Assessing these emissions poses a serious challenge due to the diversity and complexity of their portfolios, the availability and quality of data, and the con- stantly evolving nature of emissions data and reporting standards. Driving such change is therefore no easy task for the industry, as banks need to incorporate these issues holistically in their strategy and reduce their emissions without hindering the financial stability of their economies or losing competitive advantage. In this article, we will discuss how the banking industry can steer this net zero transition.
2. GHG protocol, financed and facilitated emissions
Before any type of net zero commitment, it is crucial to account for GHG emissions in a standardised and comparable manner. Developed under the partnership between the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the GHG Protocol establishes a standardised framework to measure and monitor GHG emissions, aiming to enhance measurement and monitor reliability, accuracy and comparability across companies, industries and countries.
The GHG Protocol corporate standard classifies a company’s greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PHCs and SF6) into three scopes:
Scope 1 all direct emissions from owned or controlled sources (combusted on-site). Common types of scope 1 activities include stationary combustion (fuel consumption at a facility), mobile combustion (e.g. from vehicle use) and refrigerants (e.g. from air conditioning).
Scope 2 indirect emissions from purchased energy from utilities (combusted off-site). Specifically, scope 2 activities include both purchased electricity (calculation approach can be either market-based or location-based) and purchased heat and steam.
Scope 3 indirect emissions from the supply chain. These activities can be grouped into eight upstream activities (pur- chased goods and services, capital goods, fuel and energy-related activities, transportation and distribution, waste generated in operations, business travel, employee commuting, and leased assets) and seven down- stream activities (transportation and distribution, processing of sold products, use of sold products, end-of-life treatment of sold products, leased assets, franchises, and investment).
To facilitate the computation, the GHG Protocol has developed corresponding Excel tools that can be customised for imple- mentation. For the banking industry, scope 3 emissions are key to their net zero commitments, in particular emissions from their investment activities. However, while the GHG Protocol is a valuable framework for assessing emissions, it does not comprehensively capture the intricate complexities of emissions linked to a bank’s investment activities. This limitation has led the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF), an open collaboration of banks, to develop the concepts of facilitated and financed emissions, which provide a more nuanced understanding of a bank’s scope 3 emissions:
Financed Emissions emissions financed through loans and investments and typically included in a bank’s balance-sheet activities. They are usually referred to as scope 3 – investment and loan emissions.
Facilitated Emissions emissions from off-balance-sheet activities such as underwriting, securitisation and advisory ser- vices. They are usually not accounted for in scope 3 emissions but are considered crucial to mon- itor in banking net zero standards (SBTi).
The PCAF has established a global GHG accounting standard for financed emissions. It provides a framework for measuring and disclosing emissions from seven major asset classes: listed equity and corporate bonds, business loans and unlisted equity, project finance, commercial real estate, mortgages, motor vehicle loans, and sovereign debt. These asset classes are based on financing types and sources (i.e. corporate finance, project finance and consumer finance), use of proceeds (i.e. known or unknown as defined by GHG protocol) and activity sector (i.e. all sectors, real estate, motor vehicle, etc.).
Figure1 PCAF financed emissions approach for different asset classes
1 Listed equity and corporate bonds
- For listed companies:
- For bonds to private companies:
EVIC=enterprisevalueincludingcash
2 Business loans and unlisted equity
- For business loans to listed companies:
- For business loans and equity investments to private companies:
EVIC=entreprisevalueincludingcash
3 Project finance
- Fo rall project finance:
4 Commercial real estate
- For all CRE loans:
5 Mortgages
- For all mortgages:
6 Motor vehicle loans
- For all loans and lines of credit:
7 Sovereign debt
- For all sovereign bonds and loans:
3. Steps for achieving net zero scope 3 carbon emissions
In the banking industry, scope 3 carbon emissions account for the absolute majority of total emissions. It is therefore critical for banks to establish a holistic framework and create sound tools to manage such emissions. There are a few key steps to achieve net zero scope 3 carbon emissions:
- Calculate financed emissions for each counterparty
- Benchmark against reference scenarios
- Set sectoral targets
- Closely monitor net-zero progress
Figure 2 Steps to achieve net zero scope 3 carbon emissions
Source: Accuracy analysis
Emission calculation
The calculation of financed emissions starts with identifying exposure to each counterparty. This may include exposure in relation to listed equity and corporation bonds, business loans, unlisted equity, commercial real estate, mortgages and pro- ject finance, among others.
Next, banks need to define the scope of emissions of these counterparties based on their specific sectors. For example, for the power and utilities sector, banks may decide that both scope 1 and scope 3 emissions are within the scope. Banks must then gather the data or estimate the in-scope emissions of the counterparties.
Finally, banks can apply the PCAF methodologies to calculate the financed emissions for each counterparty.
Figure 3 – Calculation of scope 3 carbon emissions
The definition of in-scope of emissions may differ for each sector, depending on the major sources of each sector’s emissions. For example, we show the typical scope of emissions for different sectors.
Figure 4 – In-scope emissions of different sectors
Figure 5 – Data requirements to calculate counterparty level emissions
It is common for some of the required data to be missing. For example, many companies still do not disclose complete scope 3 emissions. When the data are not available, banks will have to estimate the emissions based on reasonable methodologies.
Figure 6 – Methodologies to estimate emissions when data are missing
With counterparty level emissions data, banks can now calculate their financed emissions for each counterparty based on the exact exposure to the counterparty
Figure 7 – Illustration of calculation of financed emissions
5. Benchmark reference scenarios
For banks to set net zero carbon emission targets, it is essential to first benchmark against globally accepted scenarios for achieving net zero carbon. One of the possible net zero reference scenarios is the global pathway, which ensures that the sum of all sector projections amounts to net zero, for example, the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 scenario and other sectoral scenarios.
- The Net Zero by 2050 scenario presents more than 400 key milestones for different sectors, as well as datasets including figures and tables from the publication along with projections at a global level based on detailed modelling of the energy sector.
- Having quantified the baselines and identified the reference scenario, the bank is able to break down and project a decar- bonisation path for its portfolio for certain sectors.
- However, using a single source for all sectors may not be appropriate. The source might lack certain metrics essential to specific sectors (e.g. property types for real estate).
Sector-specific scenarios provide more granular dimensions and more precise decarbonisation pathways. Based on the decarbonisation goal of the Paris Agreement, and by integrating regional, national and industry characteristics, certain organ- isations have downscaled global mitigation requirements to sector level, such as CRREM, MMP and TPI, among others.
CRREMGlobalDecarbonisationPathways–RealEstate
- The CRREM is a public–private collaboration based in the European Union focusing on supporting the decarbonisation of the real estate sector. The CRREM has derived a set of specific reference pathways by country and by property type that are aligned with the requirements of the 1.5°C goal under the Paris Agreement, including individual benchmarks across different property types, countries and regions.
- Leveraging the CRREM model, banks are able to benchmark their portfolios against the corresponding CRREM pathway based on country and property type.
TPI SectoralDecarbonisationPathways
- The TPI model benchmarks emissions in most sectors against scenarios derived from modelling by the IEA and supple- mented with data from other models and databases where necessary. The TPI sectoral pathway makes it possible to split economy-wide emissions paths into emissions from key sectors.
However, it should be noted that there might be insufficient data and appropriate scenarios for certain sectors to support an emissions-based net zero target.
There are number of widely accepted sectoral specific reference pathways. Below we summarise some of the most com- monly used examples.
Figure 8 -Reference scenarios by sector
6. Sectoral target setting
Determining a bank’s carbon reduction target should be based on in-depth investigation of the bank’s asset portfolio and client commitments, combined with industry, technology and policy developments, as well as the bank’s strategy to support the carbon transition.
Figure 9 – Emissions reduction target setting
Two key target setting methods focus on the absolute emissions target and the intensity-based emissions target. The selection of metrics should be based on the bank’s financing commitment for different sectors, the availability of data, market common practices and regulatory recommendations for the region in which the bank operates.
Figure 10 – Absolute emissions targets vs intensity-based emissions targets
The bank needs to compare their existing sectoral carbon emissions with net zero reference scenarios to decide how quick they have to reduce their carbon emissions over time.
Figure 11 – Setting sectoral carbon net zero targets
7. Net zero progress monitoring
Setting net zero carbon targets is not a one-off exercise. The targets have to be monitored closely to keep track of a bank’s performance in meeting the targets. While emissions, assumptions, portfolios and scenarios may change from time to time, it is essential for banks to renew calculations regularly in order to monitor whether the bank is moving towards its net zero targets.
When initiating new financing or investments, it is important for banks to compare the net zero path of the counterparty with that of the bank’s sectoral pathway. By selecting financing and investment opportunities that are ‘within budget’, banks can ensure that they are moving smoothly towards their net zero targets.
Figure 12 – Portfolio monitoring for meeting carbon net zero targets
What Accuracy Does
Accuracy provides the following net zero carbon support to our banking and financial services industry clients :
At Accuracy, our financial services industry experts work with banks and non-bank financial institutions on strategic transformation, quantitative modelling and adoption of technology solutions. We have been working closely with both global financial institutions and smaller players over the past two decades.