{"id":60405,"date":"2026-03-06T16:58:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T15:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=60405"},"modified":"2026-03-06T17:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T16:02:08","slug":"european-derisking-is-everyone-being-lumped-together","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/european-derisking-is-everyone-being-lumped-together\/","title":{"rendered":"European derisking: is everyone being lumped together?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In early January, Pope Leon XIV addressed the ambassadors accredited to the Holy See. His speech referenced The City of God<\/em>, the great work of Saint Augustine (354\u2013430 CE). In August 410, Rome was set ablaze by Alaric\u2019s forces, traumatising its inhabitants. The Bishop of Hippo urged them to lift their eyes from the earthly city to the heavenly one, \u201cinvisible yet enduring, founded on justice and peace\u201d. Faced with today\u2019s \u201cchange of era\u201d, marked by power politics, violated borders, and the return of war (the earthly city), the Pope called for the defence of multilateralism and the international order enshrined in the UN Charter (the heavenly one).<\/strong><\/p>

This defence is indeed necessary and may yet prevail. But in the meantime, we citizens of the earthly city, in the early decades of the 21st century, have no choice but to adapt. As the geopolitical and geo<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>economic landscape shifts and uncertainty rises, risk<\/strong> reduction (derisking) becomes essential<\/strong>. The retreat of international cooperation and the intensifying competition, even rivalry, among global regions create discomfort for governments and businesses alike. Establishing new anchor points is difficult, and today\u2019s disorder can easily entice actors down paths that prove to be dead ends. Prudence is therefore essential.<\/p>

Europe embarked on this path several years ago. As early as 2023, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasised the need to reduce risks in relations with China.<\/strong> This did not mean distancing Europe from China \u2013 such a step would be neither viable nor aligned with the EU\u2019s interests \u2013 but acknowledging the profound shifts underway in Beijing. The era of reform and openness has given way to one focused on security and control. Two statements by President Xi illustrate this:<\/p>

  • building China\u2019s army into a \u201cGreat Wall of steel\u201d protecting sovereignty, security, and development;<\/li>
  • increasing foreign dependence on Chinese industrial supply chains to create a powerful deterrent capacity.<\/li><\/ul>

    \u00a0
    <\/strong>European derisking vis<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>\u00e0<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>vis China therefore takes four main forms:<\/strong><\/p>

    • strengthening Europe\u2019s economic and industrial resilience and competitiveness, particularly in health, digital technology, and clean tech;<\/li>
    • deploying tools to counter economic distortions (including the new anti\u2011coercion instrument);<\/li>
    • ensuring European investment and know\u2011how are not used outside Europe for military or intelligence purposes without intergovernmental agreement;<\/li>
    • deepening partnerships with other countries, particularly within the G7 and G20.<\/li><\/ul>


      Today, however, risk<\/strong> reduction must expand to include the United States.<\/strong> The Trump administration has implemented, or threatened to implement, a series of economic and political measures that weaken Europe\u2019s position: tariffs, digital regulation, moves concerning Greenland, and open support for far\u2011right parties within EU member states. European public opinion has formed a clear view: <\/strong>according to a Grand Continent survey from January 2026, some 51% consider the US President an adversary of Europe.<\/strong> The perceived threat level stands at 5.4 out of 10, compared with 4.3 for President Xi and 6.9 for President Putin. A strong majority (73%) believe Europe must rely primarily on itself for its defence. However, this distancing from the United States does not imply a rapprochement with China: nearly three\u2011quarters reject alignment with either superpower.<\/p>

      The economic stakes are vast.<\/strong> In 2024, Europe\u2019s bilateral trade in goods and services with China and the United States reached \u20ac2.5 trillion, equivalent to roughly 14% of EU GDP. Around \u20ac800 billion was with China and \u20ac1.7 trillion with the United States. But Europe\u2019s trade balance with China is sharply negative (roughly one<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>third of the total), while the balance with the US is slightly positive (around 3%).<\/strong> Firmness vis\u2011\u00e0\u2011vis China is understandable; the American \u201cslights\u201d, as many in Europe perceive them, much less so. Responding simultaneously to the non<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>cooperative stances of both countries is profoundly uncomfortable.<\/strong> The behaviour of the Trump administration is perceived as both unfair and value\u2011destroying. Yet moving closer to China does not appear prudent, unless one expects Beijing to change course on its external economic strategy, which seems highly unlikely.<\/p>

      On 20 January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed a roadmap for middle powers in a world where China and the United States practise mercantilism <\/strong>\u2013 expansive export\u2011driven mercantilism in China\u2019s case; defensive, import\u2011reducing mercantilism in America\u2019s. Although Canada\u2019s GDP is nine times smaller than the EU\u2019s and its population eleven times smaller, Europe\u2019s limited geopolitical traction often places it in a similar category. Since these middle powers (in Europe, North America, and Asia<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>Pacific) have much to lose in a world of walled<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>off superpowers, their strategy is to multiply cooperative agreements among themselves. Many have already begun.<\/strong><\/p>

      But is this enough to achieve derisking? <\/strong>It is necessary, but not sufficient. What should be done with the vast capital holdings in countries with which Europe now seeks to loosen ties?<\/strong> EU member states have invested roughly $8 trillion in the US in equities and bonds. Rapid, large\u2011scale divestment would risk significant losses, as the dollar\u2019s current weakness against the euro demonstrates.<\/p>

      Moreover, successful economic and financial diversification has a political dimension:<\/strong> ensuring that an open\u2011world logic survives, even if the terms of openness must be revised. How can we maintain the global architecture \u2013 the ecosystem of international organisations \u2013 required for smooth global exchange, in spite of American obstruction on one side and Chinese influence on the other? And how can we organise and finance the military capabilities needed to safeguard the free circulation of goods and people across most of the globe? France\u2019s General de Gaulle once observed, with clarity and ambition: \u201cBecause we are no longer a great power, we must have a great policy. For if we do not have a great policy, since we are no longer a great power, we shall be nothing.\u201d<\/p>

      Can the EU devise and sustain such a \u201cgreat policy\u201d, without which it cannot aspire to \u201cgreat<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>power<\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> status?<\/strong> The answer is far from obvious.<\/strong> After the Second World War, transcending nation\u2011states and compelling them to cooperate at a limited supranational level made sense to prevent future conflict. Open borders within Europe supported economic catch\u2011up, and the Soviet threat encouraged shared positions on foreign and defence policy. During the \u201cneoliberal moment\u201d from roughly the 1990s to 2010, the consensual belief that global markets required common rules supported deeper integration: single market competition rules, trade liberalisation.<\/p>

      Throughout these phases, European countries shared initiatives fostering collective success without losing their national identities. But is incremental, delicate integration still possible when facing two superpowers seeking to build spheres of influence and bind others into subordinate roles?<\/strong> If vassalisation (particularly to the United States) must be rejected, and full integration (a common Treasury, foreign policy, military force, and major fiscal transfers) remains out of reach, then Europe\u2019s position becomes difficult to articulate, and even harder to understand. Are we living in an age that no longer tolerates neutral stances?<\/p>

      Framed this way, Europe\u2019s situation appears especially uncomfortable. But must China and the United States really be placed on the same level?<\/strong><\/p>

      China\u2019s strategy is clear.<\/strong> Its ambition is to climb the value chain while reducing reliance on imports. It must therefore tolerate, at least initially, overcapacity in key sectors, managing it primarily through large\u2011scale exports. For Europe, the implications are grim: more imports now, fewer exports later. The logic of derisking is self<\/strong>\u2011<\/strong>evident.<\/strong><\/p>

      What of the United States? Can we step back from the mix of harsh rhetoric and inconsistent actions? <\/strong>US trade policy must be understood within a broader context: domestic frustration among the middle classes; China\u2019s rise, which Washington unsurprisingly struggles to accept; and a shift from neoliberal regulation to a model that prioritises national interests and a more active state.<\/p>

      The neoliberal moment was also a unipolar one, with the United States as the uncontested global leader. In a world of broadly stable global balances, implementing shared rules made sense. It was never obvious that all countries benefited equally \u2013 some more than others. Yet it is even harder to sustain universal rules when competitive balances shift because one actor <\/strong>(namely, China) does not adhere to them.<\/strong><\/p>

      From the White House\u2019s perspective, the world as it is now cannot be managed by following rules conceived in a different era, nor can American interests be safeguarded. <\/strong>This argument, generally speaking, is not devoid of logic, though it is a bitter pill to swallow, particularly in the light of White House\u2019s singular approach to communication.<\/p>

      The world is changing.<\/strong> China seeks to seize the moment. The United States rejects outdated rules and shields itself, often unfairly and aggressively, from adverse consequences. China\u2019s challenge is structural; America\u2019s is one of posture and execution. Should derisking be applied identically to both?<\/strong> Perhaps not.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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      Herv\u00e9 Goulletquer, Senior Economic Adviser, Accuracy<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      In early January, Pope Leon XIV addressed the ambassadors accredited to the Holy See. His speech referenced The City of God, the great work of Saint Augustine (354\u2013430 CE). In August 410, Rome was set ablaze by Alaric\u2019s forces, traumatising its inhabitants. The Bishop of Hippo urged them to lift their eyes from the earthly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177],"class_list":["post-60405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEuropean derisking: is everyone being lumped together? - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/european-derisking-is-everyone-being-lumped-together\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"European derisking: is everyone being lumped together?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In early January, Pope Leon XIV addressed the ambassadors accredited to the Holy See. His speech referenced The City of God, the great work of Saint Augustine (354\u2013430 CE). In August 410, Rome was set ablaze by Alaric\u2019s forces, traumatising its inhabitants. 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