{"id":58935,"date":"2025-12-18T13:27:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T12:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=58935"},"modified":"2025-12-18T15:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T14:11:11","slug":"from-geopolitics-to-generative-ai-navigating-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/from-geopolitics-to-generative-ai-navigating-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"From geopolitics to generative AI: navigating 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"58935\" class=\"elementor elementor-58935\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-67e2f73f e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"67e2f73f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-70a6104f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"70a6104f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">In this year-end edition of the Economic Brief, we explore three themes shaping the close of 2025: the US vision for global order, the fragile interplay between markets and monetary policy, and the promises and pitfalls of artificial intelligence.<\/span><\/p><h4><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">A world without universal values? The US strategic lens<\/span><\/h4><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">The latest National Security Strategy published by the White House in November offers a candid view of how it interprets international relations. Gone are the references to multilateral institutions and universal values that defined the post-war era. Instead, the framework rests on three pillars: a hierarchy of actors, relationships and world organisation, and US positioning.<\/span><\/p><ul><li><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Actors and hierarchy: Foreign policy is the domain of nation-states, ranked by power, wealth and leadership. This hierarchy must be assessed in terms of both current dynamics and accumulated strength.<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Organisation: While universal values are dismissed, a multipolar world requires some form of balance. The model is that of the Concert of Europe (1815), which maintained negotiated peace for nearly a century, based on the concept of a balance of power.<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Implications: The US and China sit at the \u2018big table\u2019, and perhaps Russia too. Latin America is firmly in Washington\u2019s sphere of influence, as is Europe, unless it becomes marginalised under the weight of immigration, regulatory excess and internal fragmentation. In Asia-Pacific, the strategic and economic status quo must prevail, with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea preserved.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">The conclusion? The world remains open, but without an \u2018American world order\u2019. Whether this vision is credible remains an open question.<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #ce1719;\"><strong><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Markets and the Fed: a dangerous game of mirrors<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">November\u2019s market swings highlight a recurring paradox: are markets following the Fed, or is the Fed following the markets? Despite Nvidia\u2019s record-breaking earnings, tech stocks faltered recently, only to rebound days later on speculation of a December rate cut. The shift was triggered not by fundamentals, but by comments from the Federal Open Market Committee member John Williams.<\/span><\/p><p><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">This dynamic recalls the \u2018Greenspan Put\u2019 era, where the Fed seemed to rescue markets in distress. Today, the feedback loop is even tighter: markets anticipate policy moves, while policymakers monitor market signals. The risk is that a parallel reality emerges, one where financial dynamics decouple from economic fundamentals, amplifying volatility and systemic fragility.<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Immediate market reaction to probability of rate cut<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-58937 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1129\" height=\"568\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1.png 1129w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1-1024x515.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-graph-1-1-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1129px) 100vw, 1129px\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Source: Bloomberg, Accuracy<\/span><\/p><h4><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">AI: between exuberance and disillusion<\/span><\/h4><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Artificial intelligence remains the headline act of 2025, with tech giants pledging $5 trillion in investments by 2030. To justify these outlays, annual revenues must soar to $650 billion, up from $50 billion today. Markets appear convinced of an AI-driven revolution, but measuring the resulting macroeconomic effects remains tricky. Though enablers (infrastructure and processing power providers) and monetisers (model developers) seem all in on the technology, adopters (end users, particularly businesses) appear to be less enthusiastic. Indeed, the adoption metrics tell quite a different story:<\/span><\/p><ul><li><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Only 11% of US firms report using AI to produce goods and services.<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Workplace use of generative AI fell from 46% in June to 37% in September.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">So, why is AI use slowing down? Worker resistance, fears of job displacement and growing doubts about productivity gains are among the major reasons. As with past technological shifts, adoption will likely proceed in waves, not leaps.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Interestingly, some researchers like Yann LeCun argue that current large language models have hit a ceiling; the next breakthrough may hinge on \u2018world models\u2019, a paradigm still in development.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"cvGsUA direction-ltr align-justify para-style-body\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">BCA Research, an independent research firm, outlines three scenarios for AI over the next 3\u20135 years, ranging from transformative gains to tempered expectations. For now, the gap between investment exuberance and real-world impact remains wide.<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Growth likely, a burst bubble even more so<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-58938 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1655\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1.png 1655w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-1024x391.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-768x293.png 768w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-1536x587.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1655px) 100vw, 1655px\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"a_GcMg font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">Source: BCA, Accuracy<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Economic-Brief-Template-1.pdf\">Download PDF &gt;<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this year-end edition of the Economic Brief, we explore three themes shaping the close of 2025: the US vision for global order, the fragile interplay between markets and monetary policy, and the promises and pitfalls of artificial intelligence. A world without universal values? The US strategic lens The latest National Security Strategy published by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":58981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[142],"tags":[175],"class_list":["post-58935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-brief","tag-economic-brief"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From geopolitics to generative AI: navigating 2025 - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex,nofollow\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/from-geopolitics-to-generative-ai-navigating-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From geopolitics to generative AI: navigating 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this year-end edition of the Economic Brief, we explore three themes shaping the close of 2025: the US vision for global order, the fragile interplay between markets and monetary policy, and the promises and pitfalls of artificial intelligence. 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