{"id":54866,"date":"2025-09-02T15:55:40","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T13:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/?p=54866"},"modified":"2026-06-26T16:32:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T14:32:08","slug":"project-risk-what-gets-measured-gets-done-or-does-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/project-risk-what-gets-measured-gets-done-or-does-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Project risk: What gets measured gets done. Or does it?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Mathew Hazenberg, Director, Accuracy<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

You could probably fill a library (or data centre) with all the books available out there on project risk management.<\/p>

Much of that intellectual capital focuses on how to assess and value the potential impact of risks on a project. There’s a lot of thinking about, for example:<\/p>

  • Statistical modelling to derive the most likely outcome<\/li>
  • Analysing empirical data to predict the future<\/li>
  • Frameworks for structuring risks as hazards, events, probabilities, impacts and controls<\/li>
  • And now of course a lot about how AI will supercharge all of this (which, evidently, it will)<\/li><\/ul>


    But for me, no matter how good we get at forecasting risk, it somewhat misses the point \u2013 and this is why so many organisations treat risk assessment with a box-ticking mentality \u2013 because in itself all this effort doesn’t actually reduce<\/em> risk.<\/p>

    Forecasting and controlling <\/strong><\/p>

    What is risk management about? Why do it? I’d simplify it into two objectives:<\/p>

    1. Forecasting<\/strong>: Identify the risks that might affect the project, estimate their impact and set aside a sensible allowance (cost & time) to cover them \u2013 in the hope that things go as predicted and that there are no nasty surprises.<\/li>
    2. Controlling<\/strong>: Put in place certain actions to mitigate the identified risks so they don’t actually affect the project (or at least their impact is diminished) and we get the project outcomes we hoped for.<\/li><\/ol>


      I’ve worked with a lot of organisations where it\u2019s the forecasting aspect that\u2019s prioritised, implemented through a range of concepts, tools and approaches. But estimating risk impacts is highly complex, and many organisations get it wrong. So how useful is it?<\/p>

      More sophisticated models combining the analytical power of AI with larger and larger datasets will no doubt improve our ability to predict better, as systems are able to refine risk forecasts for project-specific conditions and spot patterns that we can\u2019t. As a bonus, this means we\u2019ll spend less time identifying and quantifying risk, so we can spend more time trying to avoid it.<\/p>

      Stamping out risk <\/strong><\/p>

      As important as forecasting is, it is the act of mitigating the risks that really makes the difference \u2013 to a project’s success or failure and to its bottom line. This is the heart of project management: stamping out risks before they can upend a project.<\/p>

      And yet implementing and tracking mitigations is often approached as a compliance exercise. A few poorly thought-through actions are hastily entered into a risk register. They are hard to track and generally aren’t followed through.<\/p>

      If project leaders instead focus a lot more effort on mitigation \u2013 making sure actions are well-considered, likely to be effective, clearly owned, funded and properly implemented \u2013 all the effort in risk forecasting would pay off so much more!<\/p>

      So, what are some of the best practices I\u2019ve seen in risk control?<\/p>

      • Risk reviews at the top of the agenda at regular project review meetings (or at least second, after safety), with a focus on exposure and mitigating actions<\/li>
      • Project gateway reviews that demand credible risk mitigation action plans before a project can proceed<\/li>
      • Risk mitigation tracking systems, with automatic reminders, evidence tracking and escalation of overdue actions<\/li>
      • An appraisal process supporting upfront investments that will reduce risk exposure before they occur (e.g. hire extra plant to mitigate breakdowns or deliver a project in phases to limit initial spend)<\/li>
      • Systems that track systemic portfolio risks, so management can make cross-cutting interventions (like investing in a new off-site production line or prioritising a critical subcontractor)<\/li>
      • Risk bowtie model \u2013 in the ISO but surprisingly rarely used \u2013 which helps focus on mitigation actions to both prevent risks from occurring and reduce impacts when they do<\/li>
      • Routine deployment of tiger teams on particularly high-risk situations to bring a level of focus and effort that is difficult for the “business-as-usual” project team to give<\/li><\/ul>

        \u00a0
        <\/strong>Organising for effective risk management<\/strong><\/p>

        Even with great processes and controls, it\u2019s vital that the organisational set-up supports effective risk management, given all projects rely on multiple teams working well together.<\/p>

        As most projects involve a multi-tiered supply chain, it’s important that contract terms incentivise the right parties to invest in reducing the risks they control. In large and complex projects, it can be so hard to properly allocate risks from the start that a more collaborative arrangement is often a better option.<\/p>

        Also, in my experience, risk management doesn’t work well when it’s seen as the responsibility of the risk manager. The risk manager’s role is best suited to the identification and evaluation stage \u2013 to bring good technique \u2013 as well as to auditing the ongoing revaluation of risk, of course. Risk ownership and mitigation needs to sit clearly with the people who have all the necessary levers to control them (e.g. the project managers, engineers and contract managers).<\/p>

        Bottom line<\/strong><\/p>

        Risk forecasting is difficult, but it is crucial. Budgeting an appropriate allowance of time and cost to cover unplanned events, which will inevitably occur, is the only way to mitigate overruns. There are plenty of techniques to achieve this, from the basic to the highly complex.<\/p>

        But what really affects project outcomes is how well risks are mitigated, whether that be avoiding their occurrence entirely or reducing their impacts. Project leaders should put more focus on doing this well, with the right structure, processes and tools.<\/p>

        Most importantly, owners, developers and contractors need to join forces to achieve this. Regardless of the contractual allocation of risks, properly mitigating them benefits everyone, but this task becomes nigh on impossible if the parties work against each other. Collaboration is unquestionably the most critical ingredient in reducing risk!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        By Mathew Hazenberg, Director, Accuracy You could probably fill a library (or data centre) with all the books available out there on project risk management. Much of that intellectual capital focuses on how to assess and value the potential impact of risks on a project. There’s a lot of thinking about, for example: Statistical modelling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":54868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,413],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-construction-engineering"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nProject risk: What gets measured gets done. 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