{"id":22115,"date":"2021-07-09T08:11:54","date_gmt":"2021-07-09T06:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/2021\/07\/09\/accuracy-talks-straight-2-zoom-sectoriel\/"},"modified":"2023-05-03T12:49:47","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T10:49:47","slug":"accuracy-talks-straight-2-zoom-sectoriel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/accuracy-talks-straight-2-zoom-sectoriel\/","title":{"rendered":"Accuracy Talks Straight #2 – Zoom sectoriel"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique au pied du mur du climat<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Philippe Delmas<\/strong>
Senior Advisor – Aerospace & Defence,
Accuracy<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Christophe Leclerc<\/a>
Associ\u00e9,
Accuracy<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Partiot<\/a>
Associ\u00e9,
Accuracy<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le transport a\u00e9rien est en t\u00eate de liste des secteurs les plus touch\u00e9s par la crise du Covid. Derri\u00e8re lui, souffre toute la fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique, des constructeurs aux \u00e9quipementiers de toutes tailles. Le choc est d\u2019autant plus violent que la croissance annuelle \u00e9tait de 5% en moyenne liss\u00e9e sur les 40 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es et \u00e9tait encore pr\u00e9vue \u00e0 plus de 4% par an pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir*.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2020, le trafic aura baiss\u00e9 de 66% par rapport \u00e0 2019** tandis que le timing et le niveau de sa reprise sont incertains. Sur les vols int\u00e9rieurs des grands pays, la reprise d\u00e9pendra de la rapidit\u00e9 et de l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 des vaccinations. Elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 vigoureuse aux Etats-Unis (trafic revenu \u00e0 -31% en mars 2021 par rapport \u00e0 mars 2019) et en Chine (+ 11%) alors qu\u2019elle reste an\u00e9mique dans l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (- 63%). Sur les vols internationaux, la reprise d\u00e9pendra des reconfinements li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9mergence de variants, du rythme de vaccination de chaque pays mais \u00e9galement de la confiance que ces derniers s\u2019accorderont les uns les autres. Elle est aujourd\u2019hui tr\u00e8s faible. Au total, 2021 conna\u00eetra un niveau de trafic encore tr\u00e8s d\u00e9grad\u00e9. Fin avril 2021, l\u2019IATA pr\u00e9voyait un trafic a\u00e9rien mondial \u00e0 43% de son niveau de 2019, (contre 51% pr\u00e9vu en d\u00e9cembre). Globalement, le retour au niveau d\u2019activit\u00e9 de 2019 devra sans doute attendre la mi-2022 pour les vols int\u00e9rieurs et 2023, voire 2024, pour les vols long-courriers. Seul le fret a connu une croissance soutenue mais il repr\u00e9sente moins de 10% du trafic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plusieurs facteurs laissent penser que le trafic a\u00e9rien n\u2019est pas pr\u00eat de retrouver une croissance durable comparable \u00e0 celle des d\u00e9cennies pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant la crise, (5% par an de 1980 \u00e0 2019).
\nPlusieurs arguments viennent soutenir cette vision :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Les pr\u00e9occupations \u00e9cologiques des passagers deviennent primordiales et une partie d\u2019entre eux sera plus vigilante \u00e0 voyager moins et moins loin ;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Les grands groupes ont travers\u00e9 la crise du covid en stoppant net tous les voyages d\u2019affaires : courts, moyens et longs courriers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019apprentissage a \u00e9t\u00e9 brusque et subit mais les conclusions sont radicales et tr\u00e8s favorables \u00e0 la stricte limitation de ces voyages, qui permet des \u00e9conomies importantes et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du bilan climatique, qui est de plus en plus suivi par les march\u00e9s. Selon les dirigeants de grands groupes europ\u00e9ens interrog\u00e9s fin 2020, les voyages d\u2019affaires pourraient durablement baisser de 25% \u00e0 40% par rapport \u00e0 2019***.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– D\u00e9j\u00e0 suffisants pour justifier une baisse significative du trafic, ces deux facteurs seront compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par un troisi\u00e8me, corollaire imm\u00e9diat du mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique des compagnies a\u00e9riennes. Les classes premi\u00e8res et affaires sont le levier majeur de rentabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un vol long-courrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si leurs volumes venaient \u00e0 \u00eatre amput\u00e9s de 25% \u00e0 40%, les compagnies n\u2019auront pas d\u2019autre solution que d\u2019augmenter significativement les prix moyens pour toutes les classes
\nde passagers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019impact de la modification des comportements sur les prix devrait entra\u00eener un nouvel \u00e9quilibre \u00e9conomique : une baisse des volumes de classe affaires de 30% pourrait entra\u00eener une augmentation moyenne du prix des places (affaires et loisirs) de 15%. Avec un coefficient d\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 prix\/volume de 0,9*, une baisse moyenne du trafic loisirs de 13,5% serait alors \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En ordres de grandeur les pr\u00e9visions de trafic a\u00e9rien passager pourraient alors \u00eatre les suivantes :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Baisse du trafic en classe affaires et first de 30% ;
– Baisse du trafic en classe \u00e9co de 13,5% ;
– Augmentation des prix moyens de vente de 15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon nous, ce trou d\u2019air inattendu et subit constitue une occasion unique pour la fili\u00e8re de se restructurer. Elle y est contrainte par une situation financi\u00e8re intenable. Le transport a\u00e9rien a lev\u00e9 plus de 250 milliards de dollars de dettes depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie et son niveau d\u2019endettement net total devrait d\u00e9passer son chiffre d\u2019affaires courant fin 2021 d\u00e9but 2022. Aujourd\u2019hui, le secteur perd encore des dizaines de milliards de dollars de cash chaque trimestre participant \u00e0 la poursuite de son endettement. (Source IATA)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019industrie va n\u00e9cessairement devoir r\u00e9viser son mod\u00e8le en profondeur, d\u2019autant plus que cette contrainte \u00e9conomique se double d\u2019une contrainte climatique tout aussi violente. Le transport a\u00e9rien est en effet un \u00e9metteur important de CO2, \u00e0 hauteur de 2,5% du niveau mondial et de l\u2019ordre de 4% dans l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne. Il subit en outre une contrainte qui lui est sp\u00e9cifique, \u00e0 savoir que le CO2 n\u2019est qu\u2019une fraction de son impact climatique global. Les travaux les plus r\u00e9cents ( juillet 2020) confirment que ses \u00e9missions de monoxyde d\u2019azote en haute altitude (NOx) contribuent davantage au r\u00e9chauffement climatique global que celle de CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au total, le transport a\u00e9rien repr\u00e9senterait \u00e0 lui seul 5 \u00e0 6% de l\u2019impact climatique de l\u2019humanit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce n\u2019est pas faute d\u2019effort. Les \u00e9missions de CO2 par km. passager ont baiss\u00e9 de 56% depuis 1990, ce qui est l\u2019une des meilleures performances de toutes les industries. Le tonnage total de CO2 \u00e9mis a n\u00e9anmoins doubl\u00e9 sur cette m\u00eame p\u00e9riode en raison de la croissance du trafic. Ryanair, le leader europ\u00e9en du low cost, r\u00e9sume l\u2019impasse climatique du transport a\u00e9rien: ses avions sont tr\u00e8s r\u00e9cents, leur remplissage maximum (taux moyen 95%) mais elle est l\u2019entreprise la plus \u00e9mettrice de CO2 d\u2019Europe apr\u00e8s 9 op\u00e9rateurs de centrales \u00e9lectriques \u00e0 charbon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le progr\u00e8s technique se poursuivra mais, pour les avions tels que nous les connaissons, il ne s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8rera pas non plus. Quant aux technologies vraiment nouvelles (hydrog\u00e8ne, \u00e9lectricit\u00e9), elles viendront sans doute, mais trop tard pour jouer un r\u00f4le impor tant dans la tenue des objectifs du GIEC en 2050, c\u2019est \u00e0 dire limiter le r\u00e9chauffement climatique \u00e0 1,5\u00b0C et des \u00e9missions nettes de carbone \u00e0 z\u00e9ro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans ce contexte, la fili\u00e8re doit se repenser en tenant compte des faits suivants :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– La croissance du trafic restera durablement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celles des d\u00e9cennies pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes ;
– Les progr\u00e8s d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques se poursuivront mais ne s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8reront pas ;
– Ils devront \u00eatre compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par des solutions climatiques cr\u00e9dibles (et donc pas de la compensation) et rapides, comme les carburants propres. Boeing et Airbus viennent d\u2019annoncer, au printemps 2021, leur volont\u00e9 d\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer vite et fort sur l\u2019usage du k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne vert. Ces derniers ne viendront n\u00e9anmoins pas en volumes suffisants pour r\u00e9pondre aux objectifs du GIEC ;
– Le s\u00e9rieux probl\u00e8me, aujourd\u2019hui laiss\u00e9 de c\u00f4t\u00e9, des \u00e9missions en haute altitude va devoir \u00eatre trait\u00e9 ;
– Par la suite, et compte tenu du co\u00fbt des solutions de d\u00e9carbonation, le co\u00fbt du transport a\u00e9rien va fatalement augmenter significativement;
– Cette hausse p\u00e8sera sur le trafic le plus sensible au prix, le tourisme, tandis que la Tech r\u00e9duira nettement et durablement le trafic \u00ab haute contribution \u00bb<\/em> ;
– Combin\u00e9s avec une situation d\u2019endettement pr\u00e9occupante, ces facteurs vont imposer une r\u00e9vision profonde du mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique du transport a\u00e9rien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malgr\u00e9 ce diagnostic s\u00e9v\u00e8re, nous pensons qu\u2019il existe des moyens pour l\u2019industrie de r\u00e9agir de mani\u00e8re radicale et constructive. Nous vous proposerons des pistes prochainement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

____________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources : *Boeing et Airbus \/ * IATA
***interviews Accuracy de dirigeants de grands groupes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

< Retourner sur Accuracy Talks Straight<\/a> <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique au pied du mur du climat Philippe DelmasSenior Advisor – Aerospace & Defence,Accuracy Christophe LeclercAssoci\u00e9,Accuracy Jean-Fran\u00e7ois PartiotAssoci\u00e9,Accuracy Le transport a\u00e9rien est en t\u00eate de liste des secteurs les plus touch\u00e9s par la crise du Covid. Derri\u00e8re lui, souffre toute la fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique, des constructeurs aux \u00e9quipementiers de toutes tailles. Le choc est […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-insights","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAccuracy Talks Straight #2 - Zoom sectoriel - Accuracy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.accuracy.com\/en_gb\/accuracy-talks-straight-2-zoom-sectoriel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Accuracy Talks Straight #2 - Zoom sectoriel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique au pied du mur du climat Philippe DelmasSenior Advisor – Aerospace & Defence,Accuracy Christophe LeclercAssoci\u00e9,Accuracy Jean-Fran\u00e7ois PartiotAssoci\u00e9,Accuracy Le transport a\u00e9rien est en t\u00eate de liste des secteurs les plus touch\u00e9s par la crise du Covid. 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Derri\u00e8re lui, souffre toute la fili\u00e8re a\u00e9ronautique, des constructeurs aux \u00e9quipementiers de toutes tailles. 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